Arming the Arsenal: Molybdenum’s Role in U.S. Defense and the Top 10 Global Producers

In February, Chinese officials added a little-known element to Beijing’s growing list of export-controlled minerals – a move that quickly set off alarms in Washington. The metal was molybdenum, an unassuming grayish substance tucked in the periodic table between chromium and ruthenium. For decades, it drew scant attention outside of industrial circles. But as news broke that China would require special licenses to ship molybdenum products abroad, U.S. defense planners and policymakers took notice. This obscure mineral, it turns out, is a quiet linchpin of American military might – and a potential flashpoint in the escalating strategic competition over critical resources.

Officials in the Pentagon’s supply chain office have long known what few others do: molybdenum is essential for some of the toughest and most heat-resistant materials in U.S. weapons systems. It is a refractory metal – one that melts at extremely high temperatures – and when added in small amounts to steel or superalloys, it dramatically strengthens and hardens them. “Moly,” as it’s nicknamed by metallurgists, endows ordinary steel with exceptional toughness, the ability to withstand intense heat and corrosion, and a hardness that resists wear. According to the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency, molybdenum is primarily used as an alloying agent in steel, cast iron and nickel-based superalloys to boost hardenability, strength, and corrosion resistance. In practical terms, that makes it irreplaceable in many military-grade metals. There is “little substitution for molybdenum in its major application in steels,” the U.S. Geological Survey notes, underscoring that no other element quite replicates its mix of benefits.

The U.S. Military’s Unsung Workhorse – Molybdenum’s unique properties have made it a critical ingredient in an array of defense technologies, often behind the scenes. Its applications span some of the most demanding environments in the military:

  • Armor Plating: High-strength alloy steels containing molybdenum form the armor of tanks and heavy vehicles, providing the hardness and toughness needed to stop projectiles without shattering. The steel plating on an Abrams battle tank, for instance, owes part of its resilience to a small percentage of molybdenum in the mix.
  • Aerospace Alloys: The latest fighter jet engines and rocket nozzles rely on molybdenum-enriched superalloys to endure searing temperatures and stresses. Turbine blades in a jet engine’s hot section may contain a few percent molybdenum to prevent softening at high heat, a factor that can make the difference between an engine running smoothly or failing under combat conditions.
  • Nuclear Systems: In naval reactors and other nuclear applications, molybdenum-bearing alloys are valued for their stability under intense radiation and heat. Components in nuclear reactors – from control rods to structural supports – can use molybdenum to resist corrosion and avoid weakening over long periods of neutron bombardment.
  • Missiles and Electronics: Many missile components and high-end electronics also incorporate molybdenum. Its high melting point and ability to form durable compounds (like molybdenum disulfide, a superb solid lubricant) make it useful in missile guidance systems, wiring, and even the heat shields of hypersonic weapons. In short, whenever engineers need a metal that won’t buckle, corrode, or lose strength in extreme conditions, molybdenum is often part of the solution.

These metallurgical advantages have turned molybdenum into a strategic resource, even if it lacks the name recognition of, say, titanium or rare earth elements. During the Cold War, the U.S. and Soviet Union quietly stockpiled molybdenum for its military utility. Today, however, the U.S. government holds no national stockpile of the metal, and supply concerns are rising. Modern defense manufacturing simply cannot do without a steady supply of “moly.” As one Pentagon official put it recently, virtually “every DoD system is reliant on minerals” like these, and heavy import dependence “makes us highly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions”. Molybdenum might be mined out of sight and out of mind in remote mountain pits, but it is embedded in the steel skeleton of America’s fighter jets, warships and missile tubes.

Beijing’s Mineral Leverage

The sudden spotlight on molybdenum comes amid a broader reckoning over critical minerals and national security. China’s Ministry of Commerce framed its new export controls on molybdenum, tungsten and other metals as necessary to “safeguard national security interests.” But in Washington, the move was seen as a calculated response in the tit-for-tat economic standoff between the two powers. China is by far the world’s largest producer of molybdenum, mining an estimated 110,000 metric tons last year – over one-third of global output. It also sits atop the largest reserves. By controlling exports, Beijing can tighten the spigot on a material vital to U.S. defense manufacturing, sending a pointed message about Western trade pressure.

This isn’t the first time China has wielded its dominance in critical minerals as a geopolitical tool. In the past two years, it has steadily expanded export restrictions on a range of high-tech materials. Last December, Beijing banned shipments of gallium and germanium – two obscure semiconducting elements crucial to military sensors and solar panels – to the United States, after earlier requiring licenses for all exports of those metals. In April, it placed certain rare-earth magnet alloys under export control, threatening to disrupt industries from electric vehicles to precision-guided bombs. And in early February 2025, China imposed new licensing rules on five metals used in defense and clean energy – tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, and molybdenum. Each of these materials may sound esoteric, but they are embedded in products like artillery shells, solar panels, night-vision devices – and, in molybdenum’s case, the very armor and engine parts that equip the U.S. military.

Under China’s new rules, exporters must apply for special government permission to ship out dozens of forms of molybdenum, from concentrates and powders to finished alloy products. Reuters reports that the curbs stopped short of an outright ban; they are narrowly targeted in some cases, aimed at preventing the most strategic grades of material from leaving the country. Even so, analysts warn of ripple effects. China produces such a large share of the global molybdenum supply that any restriction can tighten the market and drive up prices worldwide. “Industries dependent on these metals, including defense, [renewable] energy, electronics, and manufacturing, may experience supply chain disruptions, including delays, price increases, and bottlenecks,” Melissa “Mel” Sanderson, the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Co-chair noted after the announcement. In other words, even if the U.S. military doesn’t buy molybdenum directly from China, a squeeze on global supply could hit American firms – from steel mills that produce armor plate to manufacturers of jet engine parts – that do rely on Chinese molybdenum or on the higher global prices that result.

American defense contractors find themselves in an uneasy spot. The F-35 stealth fighter, for example, contains about 500 pounds of specialty alloys in its engine and airframe, many of them fortified with a dash of molybdenum or similar elements (niobium, vanadium, and so on). If molybdenum becomes harder to obtain, those alloys can’t easily be swapped out; substituting a less suitable metal could reduce a component’s performance or lifespan. “There is little substitution for molybdenum,” the USGS emphasizes in its annual commodity report. Other alloying elements – chromium, vanadium, titanium – can mimic some of its effects, but none provide the same all-around mix of high-temperature strength, hardness and corrosion resistance that critical defense steels demand. Tungsten, for instance, is even harder and boasts a higher melting point, yet it’s far heavier (nearly twice the density of molybdenum) and notoriously difficult to machine. In high-performance armor and aerospace applications, molybdenum hits the sweet spot. For China to leverage control over this metal is to put a dagger on a pressure point in the U.S. defense supply chain.

A Vulnerable Supply Chain

The United States is not entirely at China’s mercy on molybdenum – at least not yet. Thanks to significant deposits in states like Colorado, Utah, and Arizona, the U.S. retains some domestic production capacity. American mines produced roughly 33,000 tons of molybdenum in 2024, about 13% of global output. In fact, the United States and China are the only two countries in the world that mine molybdenum both as a primary product and as a byproduct of large copper mines. (Most other nations, such as Chile and Peru, recover it only while processing copper ore.) This gives the U.S. a measure of self-sufficiency – during some years, it has even been a net exporter of molybdenum. But appearances can be deceiving. American industry still relies on imported molybdenum in various forms to meet total demand. Between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. imported significant quantities of molybdenum concentrates and alloys from friendly nations like Peru (35% of imports), Chile (34%), Mexico (10%) and Canada. In essence, the U.S. supply chain is interwoven with global trade. If Chinese export controls send more molybdenum to domestic Chinese users and less to the world market, U.S. allies could see their supplies pinched – and by extension, so could American buyers.

Recent geopolitical developments have underscored the fragility of these supply lines. As one Defense Department official noted in a speech this year, “it is more urgent than ever to build capability and resilience in supply chains for critical minerals”. The Pentagon has identified dozens of minerals, from cobalt and rare earths to tungsten and molybdenum, that underpin defense technology and where excessive import dependence poses a strategic risk. In practically every modern weapons program – hypersonic missiles, armored vehicles, laser weapons, nuclear submarines – success hinges not just on design and funding, but on having reliable access to specialty materials. Any disruption, whether due to a foreign power’s embargo or a pandemic-driven logistics snarl, can delay production and “shut down production lines,” as industry executives warn. These scenarios are no longer theoretical: in 2021–22, global shortages of titanium (much of it sourced from Russia and China) forced some U.S. aerospace suppliers to slow deliveries. Defense contractors and military officials worry that a molybdenum crunch could similarly hamstring the output of critical hardware, from jet engines to armor-piercing ammunition.

Washington is starting to respond – albeit slowly. Lawmakers in both parties have raised concern that the U.S. has allowed its strategic materials stockpile to dwindle to a tiny fraction of Cold War levels. (Notably, molybdenum is currently not stockpiled at all by the National Defense Stockpile, a fact that has come under scrutiny in recent congressional hearings.) Over the past two years, the Biden administration and Congress have rolled out incentives aiming to re-shore or “ally-shore” critical mineral supply chains. Through the Defense Production Act and other authorities, federal funds have been allocated to jump-start domestic mining and refining projects for key resources. Molybdenum is among them: in 2024, a Canadian mining firm — Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG | NYSE: CGAU) announced plans to reopen an idled molybdenum mine in Idaho – once one of the world’s top sources of the metal – with an expected restart by 2027. The same company is ramping up a processing facility in Pennsylvania to refine molybdenum ore on U.S. soil. If successful, these efforts could reduce America’s vulnerability by boosting local output and reducing the need for imports from overseas.

Still, building a resilient supply chain will take years, and time may not be on America’s side. China’s latest export curbs on molybdenum and other minerals come at a moment when demand for defense materials is climbing. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and a new era of great-power arms competition have led the U.S. and its allies to ramp up production of everything from missiles to naval ships – all of which require steady infusions of specialty metals. Molybdenum prices on international markets jumped in the wake of Beijing’s announcement, reflecting fears of a tightening supply. Minerals like these may be obscure, but they are the backbone of modern economies and militaries, and Beijing’s strategic calculus seems to recognize that. As China’s leaders look for leverage against the West, controlling the flow of critical resources is a powerful lever to pull.

National security experts say the molybdenum situation highlights a broader need for urgency. The United States benefited for decades from ample global markets that kept crucial inputs abundant and relatively cheap. But in a world where geopolitical rivals can weaponize supply chains, economic efficiency can quickly turn into strategic liability. The Pentagon’s point man for critical minerals, Adam Burstein, warned recently that America must rethink how it sources vital minerals. Stockpiling is one option, but it’s essentially a stopgap – “a band-aid… rather than a long-term solution,” as a Government Accountability Office report observed. The more profound challenge is to foster new mines, processing plants, and recycling capabilities so that metals like molybdenum remain available even if foreign doors close.

For now, molybdenum’s moment in the limelight serves as a stark reminder that high-tech weaponry still depends on raw geologic commodities pulled from the earth. An advanced fighter jet or main battle tank may represent the pinnacle of engineering, but it’s only as strong as the materials that go into it. And those materials – whether rare earth magnets or molybdenum-hardened steel – are increasingly subject to the currents of global politics. As Washington scrambles to secure its defense supply chains for an uncertain future, a once-overlooked element has emerged front and center. In the contest of great powers, even the periodic table has become a battleground, and molybdenum offers a case study in how a single metal can carry outsized strategic importance.

Now for the Top 10 Molybdenum companies as recognized by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI)!

#1. BHP Group Ltd. (ASX: BHP | LSE: BHP)

No company on Earth carries the sheer geopolitical heft of BHP Group Ltd. when it comes to mining. With a market capitalization exceeding A$200 billion, BHP is not just a resource behemoth—it is an industrial keystone, shaping the contours of global supply chains from copper and iron ore to uranium and molybdenum.

While molybdenum is far from its headline act, BHP’s quiet dominance in the metal underscores a strategic reach that rivals government-led stockpiles. Through its 33.75% ownership stake in the Antamina mine in Peru—a joint venture with Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN | JSE: GLN), Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.A | TSX: TECK.B | NYSE: TECK), and Mitsubishi—BHP helps produce more than 14 million pounds of molybdenum annually. This mine is one of the world’s top five molybdenum producers, delivering the alloying element essential for high-strength steels, turbines, pipelines, and military-grade armor plating.

BHP’s exposure to molybdenum is also embedded in the metallurgical processes at its Olympic Dam facility in South Australia, where molybdenum appears in trace but valuable quantities within uranium and copper circuits. With the renewed focus on securing mineral independence in the West, these by-products—once overlooked—are rapidly ascending in strategic importance.

The company has not publicly disclosed direct contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, yet BHP’s role as a core supplier of critical minerals indirectly supports numerous defense-related supply chains. Its uranium and copper operations are already deeply interwoven with Western nuclear fuel supply initiatives, and molybdenum’s role in armor, aerospace, and nuclear technology positions BHP as a passive yet pivotal player in Western military readiness.

CEO Mike Henry has repeatedly emphasized BHP’s commitment to “future-facing commodities,” and molybdenum quietly checks many of the same boxes as lithium or nickel: it is essential, limited in production, and increasingly geopolitically sensitive.

With China exerting control over much of the world’s molybdenum processing, the significance of Western-aligned producers like BHP cannot be overstated. Even as it expands its copper dominance in the Americas, BHP’s involvement in molybdenum-rich deposits is likely to deepen—especially if industrial and defense demand continues to outpace global supply.

In an era where commodity flows are becoming weapons of diplomacy, BHP’s footprint in molybdenum might be more strategic than the market currently acknowledges.

#2. Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RIO | LSE: RIO | ASX: RIO)

At first glance, Rio Tinto’s portfolio is a study in mineral diversification: aluminum, iron ore, copper, lithium. But below the surface, the London- and Sydney-listed giant is also a major—and often underappreciated—force in the global molybdenum market.

Through its Climax Molybdenum partnership and direct ownership of the Kennecott copper operation in Utah, Rio Tinto produces significant quantities of molybdenum as a by-product. Kennecott alone has emerged as one of the largest domestic U.S. sources of molybdenum concentrate, averaging over 18 million pounds of annual output in recent years. This places Rio Tinto in a small circle of companies capable of supplying the U.S. defense industrial base with domestically sourced molybdenum.

The strategic weight of Kennecott’s production cannot be overstated. In 2024, the White House highlighted Kennecott as a critical supplier in its review of the Defense Production Act, though Rio Tinto itself has not disclosed direct military contracts. Instead, the company operates as a behind-the-scenes powerhouse, funneling critical materials into infrastructure, aerospace, and defense manufacturing pipelines across North America.

Rio Tinto’s presence in Mongolia, via its Oyu Tolgoi mine, further amplifies its molybdenum credentials. This sprawling operation, co-owned with the Mongolian government, yields molybdenum as a secondary product—one that is increasingly central to Rio’s future-facing materials strategy. And with Chinese influence spreading across Central Asia, Rio’s control over this asset offers strategic leverage well beyond metallurgy.

Under CEO Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto has sought to rehabilitate its reputation in ESG-conscious circles, even as it doubles down on supplying metals essential to the energy transition. Molybdenum is one of the quiet workhorses in that shift—vital to both clean energy infrastructure and military-grade alloys.

Yet Rio’s molybdenum footprint is still overshadowed by its iron ore empire. That may not last. With molybdenum prices rising and supply chains fragmenting, Rio Tinto’s legacy assets like Kennecott are becoming newly relevant in policy circles from Washington to Brussels. If the West is serious about reducing dependence on Chinese critical mineral processing, companies like Rio will be called upon—not as afterthoughts, but as first responders.

In molybdenum, Rio Tinto is not just a by-product beneficiary—it is a pillar of geopolitical resilience.

#3. Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO | LSE: SCCO)

When it comes to copper, few names carry more weight than Southern Copper Corp. But beneath its sprawling Latin American holdings lies another strategic asset often overlooked: molybdenum. As the by-product of its massive porphyry copper operations in Mexico and Peru, molybdenum production at SCCO is not just incidental—it’s industrially critical.

Southern Copper, majority-owned by Grupo México, is one of the world’s top five molybdenum producers. Its Toquepala, Cuajone, La Caridad, and Buenavista del Cobre mines collectively generate tens of millions of pounds of moly annually, making the company an indispensable player in global supply chains for high-performance steels and military-grade alloys.

The company’s molybdenum operations are centered at La Caridad, where a dedicated roasting facility ensures value-added processing. According to 2024 production reports, SCCO’s annual molybdenum output topped 27,000 metric tons—second only to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) globally. This scale positions SCCO as a swing supplier in markets often dominated by Chinese or state-linked producers.

Though its customer base is primarily industrial, Southern Copper’s molybdenum indirectly reaches defense contractors in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The element’s role in armor plating, missile components, and nuclear containment makes SCCO a silent contributor to Western defense readiness—even without formal Pentagon contracts.

Yet the company’s geopolitical footprint comes with complications. Its major operations are situated in regions of heightened political tension, including Peru’s southern Andes—an area periodically rocked by resource nationalism, labor strikes, and community disputes. In 2023, protests near Cuajone halted molybdenum shipments for over a month, highlighting the fragility of even the most sophisticated supply networks.

CEO Oscar González Rocha has steered Southern Copper with a steady hand, emphasizing vertical integration, low production costs, and robust environmental programs. But as Western governments scrutinize their reliance on foreign-sourced critical minerals, SCCO’s Latin American base could attract increased attention—both as a strength and a vulnerability.

While its public narrative is dominated by copper, Southern Copper Corp.’s molybdenum operations are among the most consequential outside of China. As nations scramble to secure long-term supplies of strategic metals, SCCO may find itself thrust into the geopolitical spotlight, not for what it says, but for what it ships.

#4. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX)

If there is a company that defines molybdenum in the Western Hemisphere, it is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. With operations sprawling across the Americas and Indonesia, FCX is best known for its copper and gold leadership. But it is through its Climax Molybdenum subsidiary that Freeport wears the crown: it is the world’s largest publicly traded molybdenum producer.

The company’s Colorado-based operations—Climax and Henderson—are among the only primary molybdenum mines in the world. In 2023 alone, Freeport produced over 32,000 metric tons of molybdenum, a staggering volume that accounted for more than 20% of non-Chinese global output. For the United States, Freeport is not just a supplier—it is the strategic foundation for domestic molybdenum security.

Climax Molybdenum also operates roasting and conversion facilities in the U.S. and Europe, making FCX one of the few fully integrated molybdenum producers in the West. These facilities provide high-purity moly oxide, ferromolybdenum, and chemical-grade products used in turbine blades, defense armor, pipelines, and corrosion-resistant steel alloys.

While Freeport has not confirmed direct Department of Defense contracts, it is difficult to imagine a military alloy supply chain in North America that doesn’t rely—at least indirectly—on Climax’s output. Molybdenum’s inclusion in critical systems like jet engines, missile guidance systems, and naval vessels makes FCX a de facto cornerstone of defense manufacturing.

Beyond its primary mines, Freeport also recovers molybdenum as a by-product at its massive Grasberg (Indonesia) and Cerro Verde (Peru) copper operations. This by-product strategy—combined with high-purity primary production—gives the company unmatched flexibility and pricing leverage in a metal often treated as secondary.

CEO Kathleen L. Quirk, who took the helm in 2024, has maintained FCX’s focus on long-term sustainability, announcing continued investments in mine-life extensions and environmental reclamation. But she is also tasked with navigating a tightrope: balancing shareholder value with growing geopolitical expectations for U.S.-sourced strategic materials.

As Western governments push for resource independence, Freeport’s role becomes even more pivotal. It’s not just that FCX is the largest molybdenum miner in America—it’s that, in many ways, it’s the only one. In the event of supply disruptions or international tensions, Freeport-McMoRan is the first—and perhaps only—line of defense.

#5. Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN | JSE: GLN)

Glencore plc is not a company that moves quietly. With a market cap north of £50 billion and tentacles extending from mining to trading floors, it is arguably the most opaque and influential force in global commodities. And when it comes to molybdenum, Glencore’s dominance is multifaceted—rooted in both physical production and market manipulation.

The Swiss-based conglomerate holds strategic stakes in two of the world’s largest molybdenum producers: the Antamina and Collahuasi mines in Peru and Chile, respectively. These sites are not bit players—they represent nearly 15% of global molybdenum production. Collahuasi alone is often cited as a top-three producer by volume. Though Glencore typically refers to these interests as “copper-focused,” the molybdenum by-product is no mere footnote.

What sets Glencore apart is its ability to influence molybdenum pricing through its global trading arm. With warehousing, shipping, and hedging capabilities, Glencore is often the buyer, the seller, and the price setter—creating a market asymmetry few can match. This reach becomes particularly important during periods of geopolitical instability, when molybdenum spot prices can spike due to sanctions or trade disruptions.

As of 2025, Glencore has not disclosed any direct supply relationships with the U.S. Department of Defense. However, its output from Antamina (co-owned with BHP, Teck, and Mitsubishi) feeds into global molybdenum supply chains that ultimately service defense contractors in the U.S., NATO, and allied countries. With molybdenum vital for armor plate, jet turbine shafts, and submarine components, Glencore’s footprint is inherently geopolitical—even when it avoids the spotlight.

Under CEO Gary Nagle, the company has maintained its posture as a profit-driven operator that shuns publicity. This extends to its molybdenum narrative, which is rarely foregrounded in investor presentations. Yet behind the scenes, Glencore’s molybdenum book is one of the most influential in the world—precisely because it straddles both mining and marketing.

Critics argue that Glencore’s dominance gives it undue influence over strategic materials pricing—an accusation the company shrugs off as the byproduct of efficiency. Still, in an era when Western governments are racing to secure critical minerals, the idea that a private Swiss firm holds this much sway over molybdenum flows is beginning to raise eyebrows.

For policymakers, Glencore is both a risk and a necessity. And for those watching the evolution of global molybdenum markets, it remains the player no one can afford to ignore.

#6. Anglo American PLC (LSE: AAL)

Anglo American is often described as a mining aristocrat—steeped in legacy, with operations spanning five continents and roots tracing back over a century. In molybdenum, as in other commodities, the company operates with quiet authority.

Through its ownership of the Los Bronces mine in Chile and a 44% stake in the Collahuasi joint venture, Anglo American is directly linked to two of the largest molybdenum-producing copper deposits in the world. While these mines are technically copper-focused, the molybdenum by-product is substantial—Collahuasi alone yields tens of millions of pounds annually, making Anglo American a top-tier molybdenum producer by association.

Yet Anglo American rarely highlights its molybdenum output. In quarterly reports and investor updates, moly appears in footnotes—listed as a “secondary contribution” rather than a core product line. This understatement masks its strategic significance. Molybdenum’s properties—high melting point, corrosion resistance, strength-to-weight ratio—make it irreplaceable in aerospace, military hardware, and nuclear energy applications.

Though not publicly listed as a Department of Defense supplier, Anglo American’s molybdenum contributes to global alloy supply chains that ultimately feed into Western defense systems. The company’s ores flow through global concentrators and refiners, and by the time they become part of jet turbines or naval propulsion systems, the origin label has long since vanished. Yet without Collahuasi’s output, many of those systems would face bottlenecks.

CEO Duncan Wanblad, who assumed the role in 2022, has taken a pragmatic stance toward critical minerals. Under his leadership, Anglo American has doubled down on “future-enabling” commodities—lithium, copper, platinum group metals. Molybdenum, while rarely spotlighted, fits squarely into that strategy, especially as NATO nations accelerate their rearmament timelines and infrastructure spending.

Political unrest in Chile remains a risk factor. Labor tensions, water access rights, and environmental disputes near Los Bronces have triggered periodic shutdowns. Yet Anglo’s deep social license and long-term capital approach have helped it weather challenges that would derail less entrenched operators.

As the West reassesses its critical mineral supply chains, Anglo American’s molybdenum operations—once considered peripheral—are gaining renewed strategic relevance. In a fragmented geopolitical environment, old-world miners like Anglo may soon find themselves at the center of new-world industrial policy.

#7. Antofagasta PLC (LSE: ANTO)

Antofagasta PLC is Chile’s copper champion—a company deeply entwined with the country’s geology, economy, and politics. Yet within its high-altitude operations lies an unsung strategic asset: molybdenum. As a by-product of its flagship Los Pelambres and Centinela copper mines, molybdenum production has quietly become a core value stream in an increasingly fractured global supply chain.

In 2022, Antofagasta produced over 11,400 tonnes of molybdenum, placing it among the top five producers outside of China. This is no coincidence. Los Pelambres, a sprawling porphyry deposit nestled in the Andes, has long been known for its rich molybdenum zones. The company has made consistent investments in its moly recovery circuits, turning what was once a metallurgical nuisance into a revenue-generating asset with strategic relevance.

CEO Iván Arriagada has adopted a disciplined expansion approach, pushing Antofagasta toward operational efficiency while embracing the transition to “future-facing” metals. While lithium and green copper receive the public spotlight, molybdenum continues to perform behind the scenes—essential in desalination plants, gas pipelines, and advanced aerospace systems.

Although the company does not maintain public contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, Antofagasta’s molybdenum routinely enters global industrial markets where it is alloyed into military-grade steels and corrosion-resistant applications. That indirect link to national security has not gone unnoticed by policymakers monitoring the West’s exposure to Chilean exports.

Still, there are vulnerabilities. Water scarcity, Indigenous land rights, and political volatility in Chile remain headwinds. Environmental permitting at Los Pelambres has faced scrutiny from both local communities and Santiago’s shifting political coalitions. In a 2024 investor call, Arriagada acknowledged the growing complexity: “We must align world-class production with world-class sustainability.”

Despite these pressures, Antofagasta’s molybdenum output provides Western industries with one of the most reliable alternatives to Chinese-controlled supply. As nations scramble to rewire their critical mineral procurement strategies, this low-profile by-product could vault the company into unexpected geopolitical relevance.

For now, Antofagasta remains content to let copper be its public face. But beneath the surface, molybdenum continues to anchor its long-term strategic value—quietly shaping the alloys of infrastructure, defense, and the green energy transition.

#8. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE: HMY)

Harmony Gold is best known for its deep-level gold mines in South Africa, but its growing presence in the critical minerals conversation is anchored thousands of miles away—in Papua New Guinea. That’s where its co-ownership of the Wafi-Golpu project places it squarely on the molybdenum map.

The Wafi-Golpu copper-gold-molybdenum deposit, a joint venture between Harmony Gold and Newmont (formerly Newcrest), contains over 47 million pounds of molybdenum in measured and indicated resources. This is not speculative mineralization—it is bankable geology, with feasibility studies confirming economic potential. In a world reorienting toward supply security, that molybdenum carries strategic weight.

In 2022, Harmony made headlines for completing Australia’s first-ever molybdenum recovery plant at its Cadia Valley Operations in New South Wales, in collaboration with its then-partner Newcrest. That facility began producing roughly 1,400 tonnes of moly concentrate annually—small by global standards, but enormous in its symbolism: a Western democracy building vertical integration into a market long dominated by China.

CEO Beyers Nel has quietly guided Harmony into this strategic transition. While the company remains fundamentally a gold producer, its molybdenum production is increasingly seen as a geopolitical asset. Harmony’s corporate messaging has emphasized the “co-product value” of molybdenum in diversified portfolios—a signal to both investors and governments that the company is paying attention to critical mineral narratives.

There are no disclosed contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, but Harmony’s molybdenum ultimately feeds into industrial alloy streams that make their way into military supply chains across Asia and North America. With China tightening exports of high-grade molybdenum products, the potential for Australia and PNG-based sources to fill the gap is rising.

Yet regulatory risk remains a defining feature. The Wafi-Golpu project has faced permitting delays and negotiations with the Papua New Guinea government over royalties, community impact, and environmental oversight. Harmony’s history in navigating regulatory complexity in South Africa may serve it well, but the geopolitical stakes in PNG are different—this is not just about gold, but about Western access to a strategic alloy.

As molybdenum continues to gain recognition as a cornerstone of modern infrastructure and defense systems, Harmony Gold may find that its future lies not only in bullion—but in alloys hardened for the 21st century.

#9. Lundin Mining Corp. (TSX: LUN | Nasdaq Stockholm: LUMI)

Lundin Mining Corp. operates like a boutique heavyweight—selective in assets, aggressive in development, and global in ambition. While best known for its copper portfolio, the company has carved out a meaningful footprint in molybdenum, particularly through its Chilean operations.

At the heart of its molybdenum strategy lies the Caserones mine, where Lundin acquired a 51% stake in 2023. Caserones produces between 2,500 and 3,000 tonnes of molybdenum annually—among the highest outputs for a non-Chinese asset. Situated in Chile’s Atacama region, the mine benefits from existing infrastructure, stable output, and access to North Asian markets.

Lundin’s involvement with molybdenum doesn’t end there. Its Candelaria copper operation, also in Chile, yields molybdenum as a by-product. These dual operations give Lundin an advantage in portfolio optionality, allowing the company to respond dynamically to shifts in global molybdenum pricing and demand.

Under the leadership of CEO Peter Rockandel, Lundin has accelerated its pivot toward “strategic copper and critical by-products.” While lithium and cobalt dominate the headlines, Rockandel has been blunt about molybdenum’s growing importance. “It’s not about chasing buzzwords,” he remarked in a 2024 interview. “It’s about producing what the future actually needs—and molybdenum is part of that future.”

Although Lundin has no known direct Department of Defense contracts, the company’s molybdenum indirectly enters global supply streams that power Western military, aerospace, and nuclear programs. The strategic utility of Caserones has not gone unnoticed by U.S. and Canadian officials eager to diversify away from Chinese sources.

Still, Lundin faces political and operational headwinds in Chile. Environmental permitting, water use conflicts, and pressure from Indigenous communities have intensified in recent years. The company has responded with enhanced ESG disclosures and expanded community investment programs—a reflection of the delicate balance it must strike in resource-rich, regulation-tight regions.

In a tightening global race for critical minerals, Lundin Mining stands out for its calculated approach: not the biggest, not the loudest, but increasingly essential. With two of its mines delivering molybdenum at commercial scale, the company is well-positioned to serve both industrial and strategic buyers in a world rapidly waking up to the metal’s importance.

For investors and policymakers alike, Lundin’s molybdenum story is no longer just a byline—it’s a headline in the making.

#10. Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.A | TSX: TECK.B | NYSE: TECK)

Teck Resources is Canada’s polymetallic workhorse—a company that mines copper, zinc, and coal with the consistency of a metronome. But behind its diversified revenue streams lies one of the most strategically situated molybdenum portfolios in the Western Hemisphere.

At its Highland Valley Copper operation in British Columbia—Canada’s largest open-pit copper mine—Teck produces molybdenum concentrate as a by-product. The ore body is one of the few in North America capable of delivering consistent, scalable molybdenum output, and Teck’s integrated approach ensures downstream value from both copper and moly circuits. In addition to Highland Valley, Teck owns a 22.5% interest in Peru’s Antamina mine, one of the world’s top five molybdenum producers.

Until 2016, Teck also held ownership stakes in the Endako and Thompson Creek mines, as well as the Langeloth metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania. These assets were acquired in 2016 by Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG | NYSE: CGAU) through its purchase of Thompson Creek Metals Company. Today, Langeloth remains one of the few roasting facilities in North America capable of refining molybdenum oxide to aerospace-grade specifications and, together with Thompson Creek, forms the core of Centerra’s vertically integrated Molybdenum Business Unit.

Under CEO Jonathan Price, Teck has reaffirmed its commitment to critical minerals. While the company recently sold its steelmaking coal business, it has doubled down on copper and molybdenum, emphasizing their role in the energy transition and infrastructure renewal. “Teck is positioning itself as a builder of the next economy,” Price noted in a recent address to shareholders. “And molybdenum has a critical place in that architecture.”

Teck’s molybdenum strategy is anchored by its Highland Valley and Antamina production, offering a stable supply that supports sectors from energy to defense. And while it no longer owns Langeloth or Thompson Creek, Teck’s remaining portfolio still gives it influence in the global moly market—especially as governments and industries seek resilient, non-Chinese supply chains.

In a world of fragmentation and fracture, Teck Resources offers something rarer than scale: security with a northern accent.

Strategic Standout — Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG | NYSE: CGAU)

While Centerra Gold does not rank among the top 10 global molybdenum producers by market capitalization—its valuation of approximately USD 1.4 billion places it well below industry giants like BHP, Freeport-McMoRan, and Rio Tinto—it commands outsized strategic influence in North America’s molybdenum supply chain.

Centerra’s pivotal role was cemented in 2016 with its acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals Company, bringing the Endako and Thompson Creek mines and the Langeloth metallurgical facility into its portfolio. This acquisition positioned Centerra as one of the few Western companies with a vertically integrated molybdenum business unit, capable of controlling production from mine to aerospace-grade refining.

In 2024, the company announced restart activities at Thompson Creek as part of a long-term plan to strengthen domestic molybdenum security. First production remains targeted for the second half of 2027, when high-grade feed from Thompson Creek will bolster Langeloth’s output and move it toward its full annual roasting capacity.

With Langeloth being one of the few roasting facilities in North America able to produce high-purity molybdenum oxide for advanced manufacturing and defense applications, Centerra’s role extends beyond its market cap. In the race to secure resilient, non-Chinese critical mineral supply chains, Centerra Gold is a small-cap with big-league strategic value.

The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI): The Brain Trust of the Critical Minerals Economy.
The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) is a global organization dedicated to addressing the challenges and opportunities in the critical minerals sector. CMI’s mission is to equip businesses, governments, and stakeholders with comprehensive resources and insights into the value, sustainability, and strategic importance of critical minerals essential for technological and industrial advancement. Serving as an international hub, the Institute links companies, capital markets, and experts through exclusive CMI Masterclasses, a weekly Critical Minerals Report (CMR), in depth research publications, and board level advisory services. For more information, go to CriticalMineralsInstitute.com or to secure a CMI Membership, click here




Technology Metals Report (TMR 08.30.2024): U.S. Critical Minerals Price Support Policy, Industry Giants Forge a Chilean Lithium Partnership, and USA Rare Earth’s $870M SPAC Merger

Welcome to the latest issue of the Technology Metals Report (TMR), brought to you by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI). In this edition, we bring you the most impactful stories shared by our CMI Directors over the past week, showcasing the dynamic and ever-evolving landscape of the critical minerals and technology metals industry. Key stories in this report include the Biden administration’s consideration of price support for U.S. critical minerals, U.S. miners’ urgent efforts to secure government loans ahead of potential political changes, and the selection of industry giants like Rio Tinto, BYD, and LG Energy for Chile’s Altoandinos lithium project. The highlights listed below are presented in chronological order and underscore the ongoing developments in the sector.

This week’s TMR Report also covers Zambia’s strategic initiative to secure a 30% ownership stake in future critical minerals mines, China’s increasing control over antimony exports, and the rising demand for rare earths in China as highlighted by Lynas Rare Earths. Additional significant updates include the U.S. government’s visit to a key Korean tungsten mine, Argentina’s projection of $10 billion in metal exports by 2027 driven by lithium and copper, and a $3.5 billion joint EV battery plant deal between Samsung SDI and General Motors. We also discuss Canada’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, BHP’s renewed focus on expanding its copper operations, and USA Rare Earth’s upcoming public listing through a $870 million SPAC merger.

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Biden administration weighs price support for US critical minerals amid Chinese pressure: (August 29, 2024, Source) — The Biden administration is exploring a policy to support U.S. critical minerals projects facing pressure from cheaper Chinese materials. The Energy Department is considering setting a price floor for U.S. minerals, covering the difference when market prices drop below this threshold. This move is in response to delays and cancellations in U.S. minerals processing projects, despite significant federal investment. The policy aims to bolster domestic production of minerals essential for clean energy technologies, countering China’s dominance in the global supply chain. The initiative reflects growing bipartisan support for government intervention in critical industries but raises concerns about market distortion and long-term viability. The details and cost of the policy are still under discussion, with the possibility of temporary support for near-competitive projects.

Wary of Trump, US minerals projects rush to close government loans: (August 29, 2024, Source) — U.S. miners and battery recyclers are rushing to secure government loans before January, fearing that a potential reelection of Donald Trump could halt funding crucial for the energy transition. With falling prices for minerals like lithium and nickel, and slower-than-expected EV sales, private financiers have become wary, making government support vital. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) has already conditionally approved nearly $25 billion in loans to various companies. However, the lengthy approval process and Trump’s previous stance against such funding have created urgency. Many projects could be stalled if loans aren’t finalized before Trump potentially takes office, threatening the U.S. EV supply chain as China increases its market share.

Rio Tinto, BYD and LG Energy eligible for Chile’s Altoandinos lithium project: (August 29, 2024, Source) — Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RIO | LSE: RIO), BYD, and LG Energy are among six companies selected to advance in proposals for developing the Altoandinos lithium project in Chile’s Atacama region. The Chilean government, through state-run mining company ENAMI, seeks to increase lithium production by forming a public-private partnership. ENAMI initiated its search for a partner in May, aiming to secure either financial or operational support for the project. The selected companies include French miner Eramet, South Korea’s Posco, and China’s CNGR Advanced Material. With Chile being the world’s second-largest lithium producer, ENAMI plans to finalize the partnership by March 2025 as part of the National Lithium Strategy. The negotiations with these companies will provide technical details about the Altoandinos lithium deposit.

Zambia Plans State Firm to Own 30% of Critical Minerals Mines: (August 29, 2024, Source) — Zambia plans to create a state-owned investment company to secure at least 30% ownership of critical minerals production from future mines. This initiative, outlined by Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe, aims to maximize Zambia’s benefits from its rich deposits of key metals like copper, cobalt, graphite, and lithium, crucial for the global energy transition. The government will establish a special purpose vehicle with a production-sharing mechanism to ensure this ownership. Zambia’s ambitious target is to quadruple copper production by 2031, requiring a significant increase in output from existing and new projects. Additionally, the strategy mandates that investors allocate at least 35% of procurement costs to local suppliers and restricts the export of unprocessed materials to boost local value addition.

China fires latest warning signal with antimony controls: (August 28, 2024, Source) — China’s recent imposition of export restrictions on antimony, a critical mineral, has intensified global market concerns and raised tensions with the West over control of essential resources. Antimony, vital for applications ranging from flame retardants to military uses like armor-piercing ammunition, has seen its prices nearly double this year due to shrinking global supply. China’s new regulations, requiring licenses for exports, are expected to severely limit antimony shipments, echoing earlier restrictions on other critical minerals like gallium and germanium. These moves are viewed as strategic warnings to the West, particularly the U.S., which remains heavily reliant on Chinese antimony. With China dominating the supply of numerous critical minerals, this latest action signals potential for further trade conflicts.

Lynas Sees Rare Earths Demand Rising in China as Prices Edge Up: (August 28, 2024, Source) — Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) reports an increase in Chinese demand for its rare earth materials, crucial for industries like wind energy, defense, and electric vehicles, signaling a potential market recovery after a two-year downturn. Rare earth prices, which had dropped nearly 70% since February 2022 due to oversupply, have risen about 17% since bottoming out in March. CEO Amanda Lacaze highlighted that demand within China is picking up, alongside a reduction in previously overstocked inventories. Despite a 73% profit drop to A$84.5 million for the year ending in June, Lynas continues to expand its operations, including its Mt Weld mine in Australia and a new processing plant in the US, aiming to challenge China’s dominance in the rare earth market.

U.S. government researchers visit a Korean mine as the race against China for critical minerals heats up: (August 28, 2024, Source) — U.S. government researchers recently visited South Korea’s Sangdong Mine, owned by Almonty Industries Inc. (TSX: AII | ASX: AII | OTCQX: ALMTF), as part of efforts to diversify tungsten supply chains away from China, which dominates over 80% of the global supply. The Sangdong Mine is set to resume operations this year, potentially providing 50% of the world’s non-Chinese tungsten. Tungsten is critical for weapons, semiconductors, and industrial machinery. The visit, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), highlights growing U.S. efforts to secure critical minerals amid rising geopolitical tensions. The USGS will update its assessment of the mine in its 2025 report. The Biden administration has prioritized reducing reliance on foreign minerals, particularly from China, which has started tightening control over global critical mineral exports.

Argentina official says lithium, copper to drive metal exports to $10 billion by 2027: (August 28, 2024, Source) — Argentina’s mining exports are expected to more than double to $10 billion by 2027, driven primarily by lithium and copper production, according to Mining Secretary Luis Lucero. Lithium, essential for electric vehicle batteries, is set to be the key contributor, with Argentina’s production capacity potentially rising to 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2025, positioning the country as a top global producer. Additionally, the country is making strides in copper production, attracting major companies like BHP and Glencore. Despite economic challenges, including high inflation and a recession, the government under President Javier Milei is pushing pro-business reforms to attract significant investments. The government is also focusing on extending the life of existing silver and gold mines, while addressing infrastructure needs for the growing mining sector.

Samsung SDI and GM finalize $3.5 billion EV battery plant deal: (August 28, 2024, Source) — Samsung SDI and General Motors (GM) have solidified a $3.5 billion joint investment to establish an electric vehicle (EV) battery plant in Indiana. This collaboration is a crucial part of GM’s strategy to secure a reliable supply of advanced battery cells for its expanding EV lineup. The plant, expected to begin operations by 2027, will have an initial production capacity of 27 gigawatt hours (GWh) annually, with potential expansion to 36 GWh. The facility will produce prismatic battery cells, enhancing GM’s battery technology portfolio aimed at improving EV performance and reducing costs. This move is also a strategic effort by Samsung SDI to bolster its presence in the U.S. market as EV demand grows.

Canada to impose 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, including Teslas: (August 27, 2024, Source) — Canada announced a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), including those made by Tesla, as part of broader measures to counter China’s state-directed overcapacity and perceived unfair trade practices. The move aligns with similar actions by the United States and European Union. Additionally, Canada will impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. The tariffs, effective October 1, reflect Canada’s effort to protect its domestic industry and position itself within the global EV supply chain. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry criticized the tariffs as protectionist and harmful to global trade. Tesla may shift its exports from China to the U.S. to mitigate the impact. Canada is also considering further punitive measures, potentially targeting chips and solar cells.

BHP doubles down on copper growth after better-than-expected profit: (August 26, 2024, Source) — BHP Group Ltd. (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) plans to focus on expanding its copper business through existing and new projects after abandoning its $49 billion bid for Anglo American. The world’s largest miner reported a better-than-expected 2% rise in annual underlying profit, driven by strong iron ore production despite challenges in the coal sector. BHP is increasing its investment in copper, a key commodity for the energy transition, particularly in Chile, South Australia, and Argentina. The company expects copper to contribute more significantly to its profits, aiming to boost output in South Australia by the early 2030s. While BHP remains open to future acquisitions, it is focused on optimizing its existing assets and keeping its balance sheet flexible. The miner declared a full-year dividend of $1.46 per share, its lowest since 2020.

USA Rare Earth, a Domestic Rare Earth Mining & Magnet Company, to Become a Publicly Traded Company via Business Combination with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II: (August 22, 2024, Source) — USA Rare Earth, LLC (USARE), a company focused on building a vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain, is set to become publicly traded through a business combination with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II (IPXX). This strategic move positions USARE as a significant player outside China in the growing rare earth market, which is projected to reach $41.1 billion by 2035. USARE controls the Round Top heavy rare earth deposit in West Texas and is developing a magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The company aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 1,200 tons by 2025, expanding to 4,800 tons by 2028. The transaction values USARE at $870 million, and the combined entity will be listed on Nasdaq, expected to be completed in early 2025.

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Technology Metals Report (08.16.2024): Critical Minerals Face Political Crossroads for Government Money and Military Might

Welcome to the latest issue of the Technology Metals Report (TMR), brought to you by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI). As we count down to the Critical Minerals Institute Summit III in Toronto, updates are now being made daily at CriticalMineralSummit.com. This landmark event, themed “The Politics of Critical Minerals,” will take place on August 21-22, 2024, at the prestigious National Club in Toronto, coinciding with the same week as the Democratic National Convention. This summit promises to be a pivotal gathering for leaders in the critical minerals industry. In this week’s TMR, we highlight the top stories identified by the CMI Board of Directors as having the most significant impact on our sector.

Among the key stories this week is China’s decision to restrict antimony exports, a critical mineral for military production, as part of its strategy to control essential materials amidst rising geopolitical tensions with the U.S. The ongoing labor walkout at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile also poses a major risk to global copper supply, while the Biden administration’s $50 million investment in electric vehicle manufacturing across six states underscores the ongoing energy transition. Additionally, we cover new investments in critical minerals in Saskatchewan, India’s efforts to incentivize critical minerals extraction, and challenges in the UK’s critical minerals sector, reflecting the broad and complex nature of the issues currently facing our industry.

As we prepare for the CMI Summit III, the discussions will cover a wide range of critical topics that are shaping the future of our industry. The summit will bring together some of the most influential voices in the sector, with keynote addresses from industry leaders who are at the forefront of critical minerals innovation and strategy. Mark Chalmers, CEO of Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU | TSX: EFR), will discuss the development of the critical minerals company of the future in North America, focusing on how the industry can build a resilient and sustainable supply chain. Pat Ryan, CEO of Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSXV: UCU | OTCQX: UURAF), will deliver a keynote titled “Breaking China’s Rare Earth Supply Chain Control with Western Innovation,” where he will emphasize that “Our goal is to play a vital role in building a robust and independent rare earth supply chain in North America, reducing reliance on Chinese imports and fostering technological innovation.”

Terry Lynch, CEO of Power Nickel Inc. (TSXV: PNPN | OTCQB: PNPNF), will also take the stage to highlight the enduring importance of critical minerals in global economic strategies with his keynote, “Critical Minerals Have Always Been Critical.” He will remind us that “Critical minerals have always been critical, regardless of who wins the 2024 U.S. election. The demand for these resources will continue to shape global strategies and economic policies.” These keynotes, combined with panels on financing in the critical minerals sector, the impact of global elections on the market, and the evolving role of technology in achieving a sustainable supply chain, will provide attendees with invaluable insights and strategies for navigating the complex landscape of critical minerals. The CMI Summit III is set to be an unmissable event, offering a unique opportunity to connect with industry leaders and shape the future of the critical minerals market.

If you want to become a CMI member, click here

China to restrict critical antimony exports as geopolitical tensions target weapons: (August 15, 2024, Source) — China is set to impose export controls on antimony, a critical mineral for military production, as part of its strategy to tighten control over essential materials amid rising geopolitical tensions with the U.S. Effective September 15, the restrictions will apply to antimony metals, ores, and processing equipment for superhard materials. This move is seen as a countermeasure to U.S. sanctions on technology, aiming to hinder American weapons manufacturing. Antimony is crucial in producing military equipment, and China, the world’s leading producer, seeks to leverage its dominance. Analysts view this as a retaliation against U.S. export controls on dual-use technologies. The Chinese government asserts that these controls are standard international practice, not targeting any specific country, while emphasizing national security and non-proliferation obligations.

BHP Mine Walkout Poses Risk To Copper Supply: (August 15, 2024, Source) — The Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world’s largest, faces significant disruption due to a labor walkout after wage negotiations with BHP Group Ltd. (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) failed. This mine, crucial to global copper supply, accounts for about 5% of the world’s mined copper. Union No. 1, representing 90% of the workforce, demands a larger share of profits. The strike poses a risk to copper markets already affected by uncertainties in Chinese and U.S. demand and electric vehicle sales. BHP is operating under contingency plans, with talks expected to resume. The outcome could influence broader industry negotiations in Chile. The situation has already impacted other mines, including Lundin Mining Corporation’s (TSX: LUN) Caserones, where a smaller strike has also begun.

Biden administration announces $50 million to support electric vehicle manufacturing in 6 states: (August 15, 2024, Source) — The Biden administration has announced a $50 million investment to assist six states in transitioning their automotive manufacturing facilities to support electric vehicle (EV) production. This funding, part of the Investing in America plan, builds on previous awards aimed at revitalizing at-risk manufacturing facilities. Michigan will receive the largest share, $18.4 million, followed by Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Illinois. Eligibility criteria require that recipients have a significant automotive workforce and qualify for at least $4 million in funding. Additionally, $1.5 million will be allocated to three teams led by universities to develop strategies for converting internal combustion engine suppliers to EV supply chains. The Department of Energy’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains will oversee the distribution of funds.

Minister Wilkinson announces new investments in critical minerals in Saskatchewan: (August 14, 2024, Source) — On August 14, 2024, Minister Jonathan Wilkinson announced over $16 million in new funding to the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) to support critical minerals development. This investment will enable SRC to acquire bastnaesite, a rare earth ore, from Canadian sources and enhance domestic processing capacity. The funding also includes $209,330 from Natural Resources Canada for creating a public database of critical mineral characteristics. The initiative aligns with Canada’s goal of becoming a global leader in the supply of critical minerals, essential for the clean economy, such as those used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. The SRC’s Rare Earth Processing Facility in Saskatoon, the first of its kind in Canada, plays a key role in this strategy, positioning Saskatchewan as a critical player in the global market.

India to offer incentives for critical minerals extraction, govt source says: (August 13, 2024, Source) — India is set to offer financial incentives to research institutes for providing technical assistance to miners in an effort to develop a domestic critical minerals industry. This initiative aims to reduce India’s heavy dependence on imported lithium and rare earth minerals, crucial for energy transition technologies. Previous attempts to establish a critical minerals industry have struggled, with limited success in attracting interest due to challenges like low mineral concentration and high extraction costs. The government plans to allocate nearly $50 million for collaborations between research institutes and companies to advance extraction technologies. A letter from the Ministry of Mines on July 11 emphasized the need for tailored extraction techniques and invited joint proposals, offering up to 75% funding for approved projects.

UK critical minerals sector warns on banks’ aversion to commodities: (August 13, 2024, Source) — The UK’s critical minerals sector is facing challenges as domestic banks, like Lloyds, are increasingly hesitant to finance companies involved in volatile commodities markets. This reluctance clashes with the government’s strategy, which aims to diversify supply chains for essential metals like nickel, cobalt, and graphite, crucial for clean energy and defense. Stephen Hall’s company, Advanced Alloy Services (AAS), experienced significant difficulties securing refinancing due to its exposure to nickel price fluctuations, despite its long-standing profitability. The issue highlights a broader disconnect between the government’s goals and the financial sector’s risk aversion, which could hinder the development of a resilient critical minerals supply chain in the UK. The situation has raised concerns that UK banks are not aligned with the national strategy, limiting access to government support mechanisms like UK Export Finance.

The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Summit III to Feature Ahmad Ghahreman of Cyclic Materials as Keynote Speaker: “Revolutionizing Rare Earth Recycling from Magnets: A Circular Economy Approach”: (August 12, 2024, Source) — The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Summit III, scheduled for August 21-22, 2024, in Toronto, will feature Ahmad Ghahreman, President and CEO of Cyclic Materials Inc., as the keynote speaker. Ghahreman’s address, titled “Revolutionizing Rare Earth Recycling from Magnets: A Circular Economy Approach,” will highlight the significance of recycling rare earth elements from end-of-life products like hard disk drives and electric vehicle motors. He will discuss Cyclic Materials’ innovative technologies, including the REEPure™ and Mag-Cycle™ processes, which aim to create a circular supply chain, reduce reliance on traditional mining, and support the transition to green energy. The summit will focus on the politics of the critical minerals market, gathering industry leaders to discuss global supply chains and strategic investments in essential minerals.

Uranium Market Heats Up: A Market Review Ahead of the Critical Minerals Institute Summit III: (August 12, 2024, Source) — The uranium market is experiencing significant shifts due to geopolitical changes, rising production costs, and evolving regulatory environments. As the world increasingly turns to nuclear energy to meet zero-carbon goals, uranium demand is projected to rise significantly, with estimates reaching 250 million pounds of U3O8 annually by 2040. However, the market faces challenges, including supply constraints, geopolitical risks, and price volatility. Key developments include the U.S. prohibition on Russian uranium imports, mergers in the industry, and advancements in mining operations. The upcoming Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Summit III will feature industry leaders discussing these market dynamics and the future of uranium as a critical mineral.

The Case for Critical Minerals versus Military Metals: (August 12, 2024, Source) — Rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs) are often considered vital for military use, but the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has a relatively small demand for neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) REPMs compared to civilian markets. The DoD has initiated efforts to develop a domestic supply chain to reduce reliance on China, yet challenges in sourcing and processing persist. The military’as demand should not be seen as a benchmark for the civilian market, where the need for REPMs in electric and hybrid vehicles is significantly larger. The DoD’s goal to eliminate Chinese content from its supply chain faces skepticism due to the complexities involved. The broader market, particularly the automotive industry, is likely to play a more critical role in shaping the future of REPM supply and demand.

China Drives African Lithium Surge to Lock in Key Battery Metal: (August 12, 2024, Source) — Chinese companies are significantly boosting African lithium production, aiming to secure future supplies despite concerns of an oversupply. Africa’s share of global lithium output has surged from nearly zero at the start of the decade to an expected 11% this year, with projections reaching over 14% by 2028. Chinese firms have heavily invested in countries like Zimbabwe, Mali, and Nigeria, commissioning mines and processing plants. As demand for lithium, a key component in batteries, grows, Africa is poised to play a critical role, especially as Chinese involvement faces resistance elsewhere. While informal mining still accounts for much of Africa’s lithium production, industrial operations are rapidly expanding. Western companies are also eyeing African lithium, with several projects underway to diversify global supply chains.

InvestorNews.com Media Highlights:

  • August 13, 2024 – InvestorTalk Alert: Rahim Suleman from Neo Performance Materials Inc. to host on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 https://bit.ly/3SOUstn
  • August 12, 2024 – The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Summit III to Feature Ahmad Ghahreman of Cyclic Materials as Keynote Speaker: “Revolutionizing Rare Earth Recycling from Magnets: A Circular Economy Approach” https://bit.ly/3WZcN9H
  • August 12, 2024 – The Case for Critical Minerals versus Military Metals https://bit.ly/3YDoqEB
  • August 12, 2024 – Uranium Market Heats Up: A Market Review Ahead of the Critical Minerals Institute Summit III https://bit.ly/4dIYsUt

InvestorNews.com Video Highlights:

  • August 12, 2024 – Terra Balcanica’s Aleksandar Miskovic on uncovering high-grade uranium deposits in the Athabasca Basin https://youtu.be/HmB8gS8rmAw

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Technology Metals Report (07.19.2024): Politics & Critical Minerals at Play

Welcome to the latest issue of the Technology Metals Report (TMR), brought to you by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI). In this edition, we compile the most impactful stories shared by our CMI Directors over the past week, reflecting the dynamic and evolving nature of the critical minerals and technology metals industry. Among the key stories featured in this report are the tripling of Argentina’s lithium carbonate production capacity, the U.S. Department of Energy’s new vision for integrating EVs into the grid, and the Biden-Harris administration’s investment to strengthen the domestic critical minerals supply chain. These highlights are presented in chronological order to provide a clear timeline of the week’s developments.

This week’s TMR Report also highlights significant initiatives such as Microsoft’s strategic investment in Cyclic Materials to promote climate tech innovation and Canada’s infrastructure upgrades to support critical minerals development. Additionally, we are excited to announce the countdown to the Critical Minerals Summit III in Toronto, taking place on August 21-22, 2024, at the prestigious National Club. Daily updates for this landmark event, themed “Connecting Leaders, Advancing Critical Minerals,” are available at CriticalMineralSummit.com – we are updating the agenda daily.

FYI – if you want to become a CMI member, click [here].

Argentina tripled lithium carbonate production capacity in last two years: (July 16, 2024, Source) — In the past two years, Argentina has tripled its lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production capacity, reaching 136,500 tons, according to the Chamber of Mining Entrepreneurs (CAEM). This growth has been fueled by new projects, including the Centenario Ratones plant in Salta, a joint venture between France’s Eramet and China’s Tsingshan. Inaugurated this month, the plant aims to produce 24,000 tons of LCE annually by 2025, narrowing the gap with Chile, the leading producer in Latin America. Argentina’s LCE production capacity increased from 37,500 tons in 2022 to 136,500 tons, with more projects expected to boost output further later this year. The country is part of the “lithium triangle” with Chile and Bolivia, crucial for electric vehicle battery production.

DOE Releases Vision for Beneficially Integrating EVs into the Grid: (July 16, 2024, Source) — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced “The Future of Vehicle Grid Integration (VGI): Harnessing the Flexibility of EV Charging” as part of the EVGrid Assist initiative. This vision, developed with stakeholder input, outlines a roadmap for integrating electric vehicles (EVs) with the electric grid. The plan aims to ensure EVs are safely and securely connected, benefiting customers and communities. The vision emphasizes a symbiotic relationship between EVs and the grid, supported by five pillars: universal value, appropriate infrastructure, innovation through standards, customer-centered options, and secure coordination. The initiative seeks collaboration between public and private sectors to achieve equitable and reliable solutions. DOE plans to detail a VGI strategy, building on existing activities like smart charge management demonstrations and stakeholder engagement.

Biden-Harris Administration Invests Additional $10 Million To Build Domestic Supply Chain for Critical Minerals and Materials: (July 16, 2024, Source) —  As part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced nearly $10 million for projects aimed at lowering costs and reducing the environmental impact of producing rare earth elements and other critical minerals from coal and its by-products. Funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, these initiatives aim to meet the rising demand for critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains. The projects involve advanced testing to improve separation and refining technologies, utilizing secondary coal-based resources. Led by the California Institute of Technology and the University of Utah, these projects will boost domestic production, enhance national security, and create high-quality jobs. Additionally, the DOE has committed $151 million since 2021 to support critical mineral projects, emphasizing environmental sustainability and community benefits through the Justice40 Initiative.

Microsoft Makes Strategic Investment in Cyclic Materials to Accelerate Climate Tech Innovation: (July 16, 2024, Source) — Microsoft’s Climate Innovation Fund has invested in Cyclic Materials, a company specializing in the recycling of rare earth elements from end-of-life hard drives. This investment underscores Microsoft’s dedication to a circular economy and sustainable technology. Cyclic Materials has developed CC360™, a patent-pending technology designed to recover rare earths from hard drives typically destroyed for data security. The technology allows IT asset disposal companies to extract valuable materials while maintaining data security. Cyclic Materials’ recycling process is more environmentally friendly than traditional mining, reducing carbon footprint and water usage. Their new plant in Kingston, Ontario, employs the proprietary REEPure™ technology to produce recycled Mixed Rare Earth Oxide. This partnership aims to enhance the supply of rare earth elements essential for the energy transition and sustainable technology deployment.

Looking North: Pension funds are key to developing Canada’s critical minerals: (July 16, 2024, Source) — Canada’s North represents a major investment opportunity and a critical geopolitical concern, necessitating significant long-term and venture capital to develop infrastructure and critical minerals essential for the global net-zero energy transition. Pension funds are vital to this goal. Western allies prioritize countering China’s dominance in critical minerals, integrating geopolitics, energy security, and ESG standards to attract institutional investors. Canada should adopt similar strategies, emphasizing high environmental and human-rights standards, and democratic institutions. Despite existing strategies, China continues to invest in Canada’s Northern projects, posing security risks. Indigenous leaders require capital to participate in these investments. To secure its North, Canada needs a comprehensive Arctic strategy linked to national security, leveraging pension fund investments to develop critical minerals and infrastructure, fostering innovation, and bolstering defense capabilities.

China’s state rare-earth players bleed red ink as prices fall: (July 16, 2024, Source) — China’s major state-owned rare-earth companies are experiencing significant financial losses due to plummeting prices, despite the government’s strategic control over the industry. Rising Nonferrous Metals, for instance, reported a net loss of up to 311 million yuan for the first half of the year, a drastic shift from a 102 million yuan profit the previous year. This decline is attributed to a sharp drop in the prices of key rare-earth products like dysprosium, terbium, and didymium. Similarly, China Rare Earth Resources and Technology forecasts a net loss up to 251 million yuan, reversing last year’s profits. Xiamen Tungsten also reported a 22% revenue decline in its rare-earth sector. The downturn is largely due to oversupply, weak demand, and the state-led industry consolidation efforts.

Construction begins on China’s largest uranium mining project: (July 15, 2024, Source) — China has commenced construction on its largest uranium mining project in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, developed by China National Nuclear Corporation. The China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA) reports that the National Uranium No.1 project will set global benchmarks in safety, environmental, and efficiency standards. Utilizing advanced technology, the project will feature automation, remote control, and big data analysis for efficient and precise uranium extraction. The in-situ leaching method, using CO2 and O2, minimizes environmental impact by avoiding waste and emissions. This initiative aligns with China’s nuclear energy expansion, aiming to boost domestic uranium production to support its 56 operational reactors and 27 more under construction. The project contributes to China’s goal of sourcing uranium domestically, through foreign equity, and from the open market.

Rare earth prices are in the doldrums and China wants to keep them that way: (July 15, 2024, Source) — Rare-earth prices have hit three-year lows, driven by China’s strategic overproduction. The spot price of neodymium-praseodymium has dropped nearly 20% since January, reflecting a broader trend in rare-earth markets. Despite rising demand for high-tech applications like electric vehicles and wind turbines, an oversupply from China has suppressed prices. China’s production quotas have significantly increased, exacerbating the supply glut. Additionally, the slowing Chinese economy and weaker global EV sales have dampened demand. China controls a major portion of the rare-earth supply chain, allowing it to influence prices and maintain market dominance. This strategy appears aimed at supporting its green-energy industries and deterring Western competition. In response, Western countries have introduced measures like subsidies and tariffs to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, but significant challenges remain.

US approaches Indonesia for multinational critical mineral partnership: (July 15, 2024, Source) — The U.S. has approached Indonesia to join the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP), a collaboration of 14 countries and the EU, aimed at enhancing sustainable critical minerals supply chains. U.S. Under Secretary of State Jose Fernandez, during his visit to Jakarta, highlighted the MSP’s potential to improve Indonesia’s environmental standards and governance in its mineral sector. Indonesia, rich in nickel, copper, and bauxite, seeks to become a hub for battery and electric vehicle production. The nation has expanded its nickel processing industry since banning unprocessed ore exports in 2020, leading to environmental concerns. Fernandez emphasized the MSP would attract investment beneficial to communities and compliant with labor and environmental laws. Indonesia is also exploring a critical mineral trade deal with the U.S. similar to the U.S.-Japan agreement.

Investment in critical minerals in web of doubt, industry says: (July 15, 2024, Source) — Many companies are hesitant to invest in critical minerals and energy transition projects due to doubts about consumer demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and government commitment to zero-carbon goals, as discussed at the World Materials Forum in Paris. Despite the long-term need for materials like lithium, cobalt, and copper, the short-term outlook is uncertain. Former Umicore CEO Mathias Miedreich highlighted the difficulty in investing under current conditions. EV sales in the EU dropped by 12% in May, and companies like TotalEnergies and its partners have paused some battery plant plans. An executive noted a potential two-year delay in the energy transition, shifting projections from 2030 to 2032. Meanwhile, demand for critical materials in China and Asia remains more robust than in Europe and the U.S.

Canada and B.C. Invest in Infrastructure Upgrades to Support Critical Minerals Development in Northwest B.C. and Create Jobs Across the Province: (July 15, 2024, Source) — The Canadian and B.C. governments announced a $195 million investment to upgrade highway infrastructure in northwest B.C., aiming to support critical minerals development, improve community access, and create mining jobs. This project, part of the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy, focuses on enhancing Highways 37, 37A, and 51, essential for transporting minerals like copper, molybdenum, zinc, nickel, and cobalt from the “Golden Triangle” region. These upgrades, funded by the Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund, are expected to generate up to 3,000 jobs, $20 billion in capital investments, and significant annual tax revenues. The improvements will also benefit First Nations and local communities, ensuring safer, more reliable transportation and boosting economic opportunities across the province.

Europe needs way to price critical minerals independently of China, group says: (July 15, 2024, Source) — Europe must establish an independent pricing system for critical minerals essential for the energy transition to reduce dependence on China, which dominates the sector, according to Bernd Schaefer, CEO of EIT RawMaterials. Currently, oversupply and weak prices of materials like lithium and cobalt challenge Western start-ups, making competition with China difficult. Schaefer suggests Europe should create a critical materials platform reflecting local supply and demand and establish a substantial exploration fund. EIT RawMaterials, leading a 300-member alliance, supports the EU’s plan to secure necessary raw materials for net zero emissions by 2050. Schaefer warns political uncertainty might delay essential steps, stressing the urgency to act despite political transitions in Europe. EIT RawMaterials aims to drive necessary changes as a neutral body.

Platinum And Palladium Poised For A Double-Barreled Boost: (July 15, 2024, Source) — Platinum and palladium, often overshadowed in the precious metals market, are poised for a resurgence. Historically impacted by oversupply and weak demand, these metals are crucial in reducing emissions from internal combustion engines (ICE). Despite predictions of a shift to electric vehicles (EVs) diminishing ICE demand, consumer hesitation towards EVs has reignited interest in hybrids. Consequently, the prices of platinum and palladium, primarily used in gasoline and diesel engines respectively, have remained sluggish. However, with the U.S. potentially lowering interest rates and supply constraints due to mine closures, investor interest is rekindling. The shift in market dynamics, highlighted by rising demand and stagnant supply, positions platinum and palladium for potential gains, echoing the recent performance of gold and silver.

Oversupply forces BHP to suspend Western Australia nickel operations: (July 11, 2024, Source) — BHP Group Ltd. (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) will suspend its Western Australia nickel operations from October due to falling metal prices and a global oversupply. The world’s largest listed miner plans to review this decision by February 2027. BHP expects an EBITDA loss of around $300 million for the financial year ending June 30, 2024. The suspension affects 3,000 workers, with 1,600 offered alternative roles. BHP will invest $300 million annually to support a potential restart. Indonesia’s rise as a nickel supplier and the shift away from nickel in some batteries have pressured prices, which, despite recovering, remain significantly lower than a year ago. Australia’s efforts to develop a processing industry face challenges like low prices and high costs. BHP is optimistic about future nickel demand, especially for low-emission production.

InvestorNews.com Media Highlights:

  • July 18, 2024 – Jack Lifton issues a Red Flag on Critical Mineral Technology Claims https://bit.ly/4688vzR
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InvestorNews.com Video Highlights:

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  • July 8, 2024 – Scandium Canada Ltd. Successfully closes its Rights Offering https://bit.ly/4cCYNIg
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The playing field needs to be leveled in critical minerals to compete with China

Access to the raw materials of the new green economy is increasingly a high-stakes chess match along geopolitical lines dividing the East and the West. China controls access to the bulk of raw and midstream materials that the world needs for its transition to a low-carbon intensity economy. This control has become a critical vulnerability in the Western world’s emerging Industry 4.0 supply chains.

The mechanics of the emerging green economy rely on carbon friendly modes of transport such as electric vehicles, as well as mobile technology, energy storage, rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies fueling increased computing power, and renewable power sources — all made from mined materials such as nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium.

China’s drive to become the dominant commodity superpower started in the 1990s when it started opening up its economy to the world. The central government mandated unprecedented infrastructure spending, prompting the start of the commodity supercycle that lasted until late in the 2000s. In turn, the enormous demand for raw materials sparked a mining investment boom.

China does not have abundant domestic sources of minerals. During its infrastructure boom, the government quickly realized that, for the country to control its own destiny, it would have to secure and control the sources of these raw materials elsewhere.

At the time, sourcing the most important commodities like zinc, aluminium, bauxite, iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal from established open markets sources, was straightforward. However, that was not true for scarcer materials such as cobalt and nickel used in specialist industries.

In order to feed its growing appetite for stainless steel, China started securing concessions to control the massive laterite nickel deposits in Indonesia using a quid pro quo strategy. It offered the Indonesia government very cheap terms in order to finance infrastructure projects in return for control of the country’s low-grade, laterite ores, which comprise some of the largest in the world. As these deposits were passed over for development by traditional Western producers, it offered Indonesia an opportunity to monetize a vast resource that had sat latent for decades.

China soon started exporting the ore directly to its domestic furnaces repurposed from the iron industry, using them to make a material called nickel pig iron (NPI), which is essentially a low-grade ferro-nickel product.

Nearly overnight, China added between 300,000–400,000 tonnes of NPI units to a one and a half million tonne market, pushing aside major producers such as Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN), Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE), BHP Group Ltd. (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) and Norilsk.

As massive quantities of raw ore began to flow from Indonesia to China, the Indonesian government realized that royalties, taxes and jobs were being transported offshore to China and implemented regulations requiring upgrading of raw ores within Indonesia prior to export. This resulted in massive investments in NPI capacity in Indonesia.

The investments in Indonesia also meant a double bonus for the Indonesian government because the new plants relied heavily on electrical power and could be powered by cheap, local thermal coal, creating another new revenue stream for Indonesia. By this time, however, the hopes of Western mining companies for a robust, profitable class 2 nickel industry had been dashed, and China had secured dominance in this area.

It should be no surprise, as the same thing happened with cobalt. When China realized the Democratic Republic of the Congo was home to over 70% of the world’s supply, it used its tried and tested financial incentives to gain de facto control over most of the world’s cobalt. Again, it exported the ore directly to China until the DRC government, like Indonesia, demanded more in-country value add. China responded by constructing concentrators and eventually cobalt hydroxide plants in the DRC, enabling the host country to share more of the early profit, before exporting the high-value products. This meant less profit for China but it ensured that Chinese companies remained in control of the raw material, with the added benefit that the West was left with few options but to rely on Chinese supply for the bulk of their needs.

China’s forward thinking when it comes to downstream domestic processing and refining capacity — at a time when the West did not see the need for such investments — has not been limited to cobalt and nickel. As things stand today, China is also the gatekeeper to the suite of rare earths metals the West needs for its advanced technologies used in the military and the green economy in general. The Chinese are also a global leader in polysilicon, which is vital to the manufacture of solar panels.

A different playbook

China has been able to achieve dominance thus far by using a different playbook than its Western rivals. As we’ve seen before, and even recently, China can make or break the market almost overnight with its far-reaching existing production capacity and ambitions.

During the commodity supercycle, the West did in fact invest in new nickel production capacity, thinking that Chinese demand growth would essentially underpin rising prices. But when China’s new NPI units hit the market early in the 2000’, and several of the Western-backed projects failed to meet financial and capacity expectations, it left a bitter taste in the mouths of Western investors, who today remain reticent to invest in projects outside of China.

Perhaps the biggest advantage China has in securing its supplies is that its investment mandates are driven and supported by government policy, instead of free market forces.

In the West, investors want to see a minimum of 8% return on investment before approving a project. Not so for the Chinese. The Chinese government sets the national agenda in its five-year plans, and throws the might of the world’s second-largest economy behind its stated objectives. Hence the massive investments in jurisdictions the West consider too risky, and in projects that do not have the same level of economic return expected elsewhere.

These differences have once again been brought into the spotlight this year. Just as the Western world thought the transition to the green economy would allow its, predominantly sulphide sources of Class 1 (battery-grade) nickel to shine, the Chinese announced they would refit older NPI plants to convert NPI using a carbon-intensive technology to make nickel matte.

In the two months prior to the announcement, LME nickel prices had climbed to above US$19,000 per tonne. The news caused the nickel price to drop 15% in three days because of the anticipated supply coming online.

Whether or not China is able to bring the new Class 1 nickel credits to market on schedule or not, by refusing to financially back the development of Western nickel projects, the global investment community has reacted in its favour and enabled the country to continue building a world leading, long-term supply for its own manufacturing machine.

The modern world’s dependence on China was soundly demonstrated in 2020 when, following the Chinese lockdown restrictions in response to Covid-19, automakers in the western world had to temporarily slow down or halt production because of a shortage of electronic chips sourced from China. It exposed a critical weakness in the supply chain.

A level playing field

People may ask why Western nations have not acted to at least limit this disadvantage. The problem is that Western governments do not, as a general rule, get involved when it comes to the mining and processing of raw materials. They leave it to public and private companies, backed by the global investment community. So, if investors don’t like the return on investment (ROI), then the project will not end up in production.

What then is the answer?

China’s latest moves in nickel provide a potential way forward. Producing nickel matte is both expensive and carbon intensive. The Chinese are not as focused on financial return because they are not looking at the value of the Class 1 nickel in isolation. Instead, they are looking at the value of the products that need it, and they are factoring in the huge economic advantage that comes with Western reliance on Chinese nickel and the end-products that require it.

As of yet, Chinese firms are also not concerned about the high carbon intensity because they are not facing a carbon tax. This places competing European and Canadian plants at a major disadvantage since they do get taxed on carbon emissions.

Ironically, the Canadian government, for example, taxes carbon from domestic producers, but is happy to import stainless steel from China that uses carbon-intensive nickel from Indonesia, without any such carbon levy. This is nickel with a greenhouse gas footprint approximately 30 times that of nickel that could be produced in Canada from projects like Giga Metals Corp.’s (TSXV: GIGA | OTCQX: GIGGF) massive Turnagain nickel sulphide deposit.

Until Western governments put in place some sort of tariff system tied to carbon footprint, regardless of origin, China will continue to play the long game — advancing projects in developing countries and achieving increasing dominance with key materials and supply chains.

In other words, the nickel market and all the other critical metals will continue to trade based on Chinese government policy and market interventions, and place Western hopes of a robust economic revival through the adoption of green technologies in jeopardy, until Western governments create an even playing field.




Technology Metals Report (04.26.2024): Energy Fuels Takes First Base & ASM Secures $1.12Bn for Dubbo

Welcome to the latest issue of the Technology Metals Report (TMR), brought to you by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI). In this edition, we compile the most impactful stories shared by our CMI Director‘s over the past week, reflecting the dynamic and evolving nature of the critical minerals and technology metals industry. Among the key stories featured in this report are the strategic acquisition by Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU | TSX: EFR) of Base Resources Limited (ASX: BSE | AIM: BSE) to become a leader in critical minerals production, and Nornickel’s initiative to establish a new copper plant in China, enhancing their production capabilities amidst Western sanctions. We also cover significant developments like Rio Tinto, Eramet, and LG Energy’s competition to develop lithium extraction technology in Chile, which is crucial for the global battery market.

This week’s TMR Report also highlights the growth in the electric vehicle market with projections for 2024 sales reaching 17 million units worldwide, underlining a substantial shift towards electric mobility. Additionally, we delve into Honda’s massive $15 billion investment to establish Canada’s first comprehensive electric vehicle supply chain, promising to create thousands of new jobs and significantly bolster North America’s role in the global EV market. These developments underscore the intertwined nature of technological advancements and strategic investments across the critical minerals sector, positioning our industries at the forefront of global economic and environmental transformations.

To keep up-to-date with such crucial developments and to be part of our growing community, become a CMI member.

Growing North American support builds momentum for Dubbo Project funding process: (April 26, 2024, Source) — Australian Strategic Materials Limited (ASX: ASM) announced receiving a non-binding, conditional Letter of Interest (LoI) from Export Development Canada (EDC), offering up to A$400 million in debt financing for the Dubbo Project, focusing on rare earths and critical minerals. This support aligns with ASM’s strategy to strengthen North American partnerships, enhancing a secure critical minerals supply chain. The EDC LoI supplements previous funding interests, including A$200 million from Export Finance Australia and A$923 million from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, reflecting growing financial confidence in the project. ASM’s Managing Director, Rowena Smith, expressed enthusiasm for the momentum in funding and strategic relationships, underlining the project’s potential as a reliable source of critical minerals. The company continues to engage with other financial entities to secure further support.

Honda to build Canada’s first comprehensive electric vehicle supply chain, creating thousands of new jobs in Ontario: (April 25, 2024, Source) — Honda is set to invest approximately $15 billion to develop Canada’s first comprehensive electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, based in Ontario. This landmark investment includes the establishment of four new manufacturing facilities, notably an EV assembly plant and a standalone battery manufacturing facility at Honda’s Alliston site. Additionally, Honda will collaborate with POSCO Future M Co., Ltd. and Asahi Kasei Corporation to build a cathode active material and precursor processing plant and a separator plant, respectively. Projected to be fully operational by 2028, the assembly plant will have the capacity to produce up to 240,000 vehicles annually. This initiative is expected to create over a thousand manufacturing jobs directly and thousands more indirectly throughout Canada, significantly bolstering the nation’s automotive sector. The investment highlights the global confidence in Canada’s skilled workforce and robust economic environment.

BHP Targets Anglo American in Bid Valuing Miner at $39 Billion: (April 25, 2024, Source) — BHP Group Ltd. (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) proposed a £31.1 billion takeover of Anglo American PLC, aiming to become the world’s top copper producer. The all-share deal requires Anglo to divest its South African platinum and iron ore stakes before acquisition. This merger would give BHP control over roughly 10% of global copper supply, anticipating a market shortage. The offer of £25.08 per share stirred Anglo’s shares to rise 14%, reflecting a market value of £30.7 billion. BHP’s interest, initially reported by Bloomberg, has reactivated large-scale mergers in the mining sector after a cautious period. Analysts predict a potential raise in BHP’s initial bid, amidst expectations of a bidding war and increased market consolidation. The deal is expected to face antitrust scrutiny due to the significant concentration of global copper production.

Thinking about MP/Lynas? Think about Studebaker-Packard: (April 24, 2024, Source) — The historical consolidation of the American car industry from 1950 to 1960, where major brands like Studebaker and Packard failed despite the post-war demand for cars, serves as an analogy to critique the potential merger of MP Materials Corp. and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. in the rare earths sector. Jack argues against the merger, citing the leadership’s lack of industry-specific knowledge, operational mismatches, and incompatible mining operations between the two firms. Concerns are also raised about the practicality of their strategies and the implications of excess capacity and the handling of hazardous byproducts. The broader theme criticizes today’s business and political leaders, suggesting they lack the understanding and capability demonstrated by past industry giants like those during WWII, thereby questioning current strategic decisions in business compared to historical precedents.

BlackRock Says $12,000 Copper Is Needed to Incentivize New Mines: (April 24, 2024, Source) — Olivia Markham, co-manager of the BlackRock World Mining Fund, stated that copper prices need to hit $12,000 per ton—a 20% increase from current highs—to stimulate investments in new mines. This rise is crucial to prevent significant shortages during the energy transition, despite copper recently reaching a two-year high of nearly $10,000 per ton. Markham highlighted the necessity of higher prices to support new greenfield projects as the industry faces a dire shortage of mined ore, particularly with soft demand from China this year. An analysis of recent mining investments shows that to achieve a 15% post-tax return, copper prices must reach $12,000 per ton. The ongoing shortage and positive shifts in manufacturing sentiment suggest a potential bull market for copper, with prices already up by 15% year-to-date.

World’s Biggest Energy Traders Are Returning to Metals Markets: (April 24, 2024, Source) — Some of the world’s largest energy trading firms, including Vitol Group, Gunvor Group, and Mercuria Energy Group, are re-entering the metals market after a hiatus marked by previous financial setbacks. They are expanding their metals teams to utilize profits from the energy sector, amid optimistic forecasts for copper and aluminum due to looming production shortfalls. This move is strategic as these metals are crucial in the energy transition, linking closely to power markets where these companies are also expanding. Despite the challenges posed by a market dominated by giants like Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group, these energy traders are leveraging their substantial capital and large-scale logistics to potentially disrupt the market. They are focusing on commodities like aluminum and iron, while exploring roles in base metals trading and funding mining operations, signaling a significant shift in their business strategies.

Lynas Rare Earths’ revenue slumps, misses expectations: (April 23, 2024, Source) — Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC), an Australian miner, reported a significant decline in third-quarter sales revenue, falling short of analyst expectations with only A$101.2 million compared to A$242.8 million the previous year. This decline was primarily due to decreased prices for rare earths, influenced by increased production in China and slower demand recovery. CEO Amanda Lacaze noted a slight price improvement but not enough to accelerate production. Consequently, Lynas will not increase production at its Malaysian facilities and plans to retain inventories until prices rise. The company also adjusted the budget for its Kalgoorlie project in Western Australia to A$800 million from A$730 million. Additionally, Lynas is progressing with its Mt Weld Expansion Project and anticipates starting construction on a U.S. processing plant by year-end to help reduce American reliance on Chinese rare earths.

Fuel cycle players explore opportunities and challenges at WNFC 2024: (April 23, 2024, Source) — At the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle 2024 conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan, industry leaders discussed the ambitious goal of tripling nuclear energy capacity by 2050, addressing both the opportunities and challenges this presents for the nuclear supply chain. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association, emphasized the growing political support for nuclear energy amidst volatile geopolitics and energy security crises. Bohdan Zronek, Chairman of the World Nuclear Association and chief nuclear officer at ČEZ, highlighted the need to enhance every aspect of the nuclear value chain, from mining to fuel fabrication, to meet this target. This includes constructing about 1000GWe of new nuclear capacity over the next 26 years, necessitating significant innovation and expansion in capabilities. The conference also focused on how front-end fuel cycle players, particularly in uranium-rich Kazakhstan, are preparing to meet these demands, with emphasis on strategic partnerships and new market dynamics.

The world’s electric car fleet continues to grow strongly, with 2024 sales set to reach 17 million: (April 23, 2024, Source) — The global electric car market is expanding rapidly, with 2024 projected sales reaching 17 million units. This growth is highlighted by a 25% increase in sales in the first quarter compared to the previous year, maintaining the momentum from 2023’s 35% increase to nearly 14 million vehicles sold. China continues to lead with expected sales of 10 million electric cars in 2024, representing about 45% of its total car market. In contrast, the U.S. and Europe are seeing electric cars making up a smaller portion of total sales, yet significant growth is evident. The IEA’s Global EV Outlook underscores that electric vehicles (EVs) are set to dominate the future auto market, influenced by substantial investments in the EV supply chain, declining prices, and robust policy support. If current trends persist, one in three cars in China will be electric by 2030, with similar but slightly lower proportions in the U.S. and Europe. This shift is poised to drastically reduce oil consumption and reshape both the auto and energy sectors globally.

Rio Tinto, Eramet and LG Energy seek to develop lithium extraction tech for Chile: (April 22, 2024, Source) — Rio Tinto, Eramet, and LG Energy are among 30 companies vying to develop lithium extraction technology for a Chilean salt flat, as part of early exploration efforts announced by ENAMI, Chile’s state-run mining agency. Chile aims to mine the Salares Altoandinos salt flat for lithium, seeking detailed proposals from companies on methods to test brine deposits and achieve battery-grade lithium, including plans for environmental impact assessments of brine reinjection. The initiative is part of a broader strategy by President Gabriel Boric to enhance state involvement in Chile’s lithium sector, which holds the world’s largest reserves. Boric’s policy also includes transitioning from traditional evaporation ponds to direct lithium extraction technology. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto and France’s Eramet are progressing with their own lithium projects in Argentina, anticipating production starts this year.

Copper demand to boom as new technology drives power consumption, Trafigura says: (April 22, 2024, Source) — Trafigura, a commodity trading firm, predicts a significant increase in copper demand, forecasting an additional 10 million metric tons over the next decade due to advancements in technology and the energy transition. This surge is driven by the growing needs of the electric vehicle (EV) industry, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and automation. Graeme Train of Trafigura indicates that EVs will account for one-third of this new demand, with another third due to the expansion in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. The remaining demand will come from automation, manufacturing capital expenditures, and cooling systems in data centers. This increased demand is occurring alongside a spike in copper prices, which have reached two-year highs near $10,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, fueled by tight supplies and declining warehouse stocks. Disruptions like mine closures have exacerbated supply constraints, contributing to a bullish outlook for copper, with forecasts anticipating significant market shortages.

Nornickel set to build copper plant in China after shutting Russian factory: (April 22, 2024, Source) — Nornickel, a leading metal producer, is set to close its copper plant in Russia, aimed at reducing sulphur dioxide emissions, and will establish a new facility in China, according to CEO Vladimir Potanin. This decision follows the refusal of Western technology partners to supply essential parts due to sanctions. The move is part of Nornickel’s broader strategy to adapt to the adverse impacts of Western sanctions, which have also influenced changes in the timing, cost, and configuration of their emission reduction projects. The U.S. and the U.K. recently intensified pressures by banning new imports of certain Russian metals, prompting Nornickel to seek alternative markets. Potanin announced plans for a joint venture in China to build the plant by mid-2027, leveraging local technology and market proximity, and potentially entering the battery production sector. This shift also aligns with the broader trend of Russian firms relocating to China following U.S. sanctions.

Energy Fuels Secures Strategic Acquisition (A$375M) of Base Resources to Become a Global Leader in Critical Minerals Productions: (April 21, 2024, Source) — Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU | TSX: EFR), a key player in the uranium, rare earths, and vanadium market, has significantly expanded its portfolio through the acquisition of Base Resources Limited (ASX: BSE | AIM: BSE) for A$375 million. This deal, which entails purchasing 100% of Base Resources’ shares, marks Energy Fuels’ major stride into the global critical minerals market. The acquisition includes the Toliara heavy mineral sands project in Madagascar, known for its abundant deposits of monazite, a valuable byproduct in titanium and zirconium production. This project is poised to enhance Energy Fuels’ production of low-cost, high-value rare earth oxides, utilizing its White Mesa Mill in Utah for processing. The acquisition also brings onboard Base Resources’ experienced team, boosting operational efficiencies. Financial terms involve both stock and cash components, indicating a strategic move by Energy Fuels to diversify and strengthen its critical mineral supply, crucial for modern technologies like electric vehicles and renewable energy systems.

Investor.News Critical Minerals Media Coverage:

  • April 24, 2024 – Thinking about MP/Lynas? Think about Studebaker-Packard https://bit.ly/4aPlkAD
  • April 23, 2024 – Criticality & China: A Matter of Perspective https://bit.ly/3U8QaNr
  • April 21, 2024 – Energy Fuels Secures Strategic Acquisition (A$375M) of Base Resources to Become a Global Leader in Critical Minerals Productions https://bit.ly/3Q9gNR6

Investor.News Critical Minerals Videos:

  • April 25, 2024 – John Passalacqua on First Phosphate Meeting the Demand for Battery-Grade LFP Cathode Active Material https://bit.ly/49SpiHk

Critical Minerals IN8.Pro Member News Releases:

  • April 26, 2024 – Growing North American support builds momentum for Dubbo Project funding process https://bit.ly/3UAo5QD
  • April 26, 2024 – Indicative, Conditional and Non-Binding Proposal Received by American Rare Earths https://bit.ly/3UjmNYG
  • April 25, 2024 – Zentek Provides ZenGUARD(TM) Business Update https://bit.ly/3JAoH2j
  • April 24, 2024 – Power Nickel Extends Momentum – Closes Acquisition on 80% of Nisk https://bit.ly/3UviRFF
  • April 23, 2024 – First Phosphate Intersects 92.5 m of 11.82% Igneous Phosphate Starting at Surface at Its Begin-Lamarche Project in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, Quebec, Canada https://bit.ly/4aOzbXO
  • April 23, 2024 – Appia Announces Appointment of Mr. Andre Costa as New VP Exploration for Brazil Operations https://bit.ly/49QtjMg
  • April 23, 2024 – Power Nickel Releases Thick High-Grade Assays of Copper, PGMs, Gold and Silver from its new Lion Discovery https://bit.ly/3UuBZn9
  • April 22, 2024 – Scandium Canada Signs Pre-Development Agreement with the Naskapi Nation of Kawawachikamach for its Crater Lake Scandium Project https://bit.ly/4b7qrf3
  • April 21, 2024 – Energy Fuels Announces Agreement for Transformational Acquisition of Base Resources, Creating a Global Leader in Critical Minerals Production with a Focus on Uranium, Rare Earth Elements and Heavy Mineral Sands https://bit.ly/3UtxEAS



Australia’s Precarious Position: Navigating a Critical Minerals Market Meltdown

Australia, often celebrated as the world’s quarry, finds itself at a critical juncture as the prices of iron ore, nickel, and lithium, three of its most significant exports, have plummeted. This decline has not only exposed the inherent vulnerabilities of relying heavily on these commodities but has also highlighted the country’s dependence on China, its largest buyer. This situation is further compounded by the realization that the wider global implications of such a downturn are largely overlooked by many in the field.

Jack Lifton, the co-founder of the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI), points out that the economic feasibility of mining and refining operations is predicated on the massive demand from major players. The recent challenges faced by Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.’s (ASX: LYC) Kalgoorlie ore processing plant exemplify the precarious nature of these operations. The plant, initially constructed to comply with Malaysian regulations against importing radioactive materials, now struggles with the fallout from BHP Group’s (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) decision to shut down local nickel operations, a key source of sulphuric acid, due to dwindling demand.

The repercussions of these developments are far-reaching. The collapse of the nickel industry, for instance, has revealed a manipulation of market prices reminiscent of supermarket-style scandals, but on a much grander scale. This, coupled with China’s strategic dominance over the global supply chain for rare earth elements and other critical minerals, poses a significant threat not just to Australia but to the global balance of power in the minerals market.

China’s strategy has been multifaceted, involving not only the subsidization of production costs at every step but also a willingness to absorb the environmental costs associated with such operations. This approach has allowed China to assert near-monopolistic control over the processing of about 80% of the world’s rare earths, and critical components like lithium, gallium, and germanium. The implications of this dominance are profound, affecting everything from the global race to combat climate change to the strategic military balance between major world powers.

Australia’s response to this challenge has been twofold. On one hand, it has attempted to leverage its rich deposits of critical minerals by offering subsidies to mining and processing operations in a bid to reduce dependence on Chinese processing facilities. On the other hand, the Australian government has had to contend with the immediate economic fallout from the collapse of metal prices, including providing emergency corporate aid and grappling with the loss of thousands of jobs as companies reassess the viability of their operations.

The situation is further complicated by China’s apparent readiness to use its economic power to coerce or punish countries that challenge its interests, as seen in the imposition of trade restrictions and embargoes on Australian exports following diplomatic tensions.

As Australia navigates this precarious situation, several paths forward emerge. One involves underwriting the construction of national processing facilities to add value to its mineral exports, potentially offering a cleaner alternative to Chinese-processed materials. This approach, however, would require a significant shift from recent trends towards privatization and might necessitate substantial investment to make Australia a competitive player in the global market for processed minerals.

Ultimately, Australia’s challenge is not just about responding to immediate economic pressures but about rethinking its strategic position in a rapidly changing global market. The country’s ability to adapt to these changes, diversify its economic base, and negotiate the complex interplay of global trade and politics will determine its future role on the world stage.

To stay up to date with the Critical Minerals Market, click here to join the CMI. A complimentary resource library that tracks the critical mineral lists from the USA to Australia to the UK may be accessed here.




Technology Metals Report (02.23.2024): Yellen to Visit Chile for Critical Minerals and Biden’s EV Dreams Are a Nightmare for Tesla

Welcome to the latest issue of the Technology Metals Report (TMR), brought to you by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI). In this edition, we compile the most impactful stories shared by our members over the past week, reflecting the dynamic and evolving nature of the critical minerals and technology metals industry. From the Inflation Reduction Act’s challenges for the American EV industry to China’s lithium market developments and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s strategic visit to Chile, our report covers a wide array of developments crucial for stakeholders. The unveiling of Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) lithium refinery in Texas, alongside CATL’s confirmation of its lithium mine’s normal operations, paints a picture of the industry’s efforts to navigate through pricing volatilities, supply chain complexities, and geopolitical tensions. Moreover, the significant moves by major financial institutions in the uranium market and Gecamines’ strategic overhaul in the DRC underline the shifting paradigms in the mining and investment landscapes of technology metals.

This TMR report also highlights the broader implications of these developments on the global stage, including efforts to diminish reliance on China for essential metals, the impact of Tesla’s pricing strategies on the used EV market, and the strategic dialogues around rare earths markets. The visit by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Chile is spotlighted as a key initiative to bolster ties around critical minerals, emphasizing the urgency of diversifying supply chains amid growing demands for green transition materials. Additionally, the narrative around the challenges posed by the Inflation Reduction Act for Tesla and the US car industry, coupled with BHP’s cautionary stance on the Australian nickel sector, illustrates the complex interplay between policy, market dynamics, and strategic resource management. As we delve into these stories, our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview that informs and stimulates discussion among policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders, navigating the intricate pathways towards a sustainable and competitive future for critical minerals and technology metals.

MP Materials swings to quarterly loss on falling rare earths prices (February 22, 2024, Source) — MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) reported a fourth-quarter loss, attributed to declining rare earths prices and increased production costs, despite expectations of a larger deficit. Amidst unsuccessful merger discussions with Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) and competition from Chinese firms, CEO Jim Litinsky emphasized the potential for mutual learning and cost reduction among companies. Despite a 2.7% drop in shares on Thursday, a slight recovery was observed in after-hours trading. The company experienced a significant shift from previous year’s profit to a $16.3 million loss. Sales of rare earths concentrate to China decreased by 34% due to lower production at its Mountain Pass mine, exacerbated by facility issues. However, MP is advancing in refining rare earths domestically, with ongoing projects in California and Texas, and has initiated production in a new facility in Vietnam.

Stalling the American EV Industry: The Unintended Consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act’s Attempt to Bypass China for Critical Minerals (February 22, 2024, Source) — The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), integral to President Joe Biden’s environmental strategy, seeks to transition the American automotive industry towards a US-centric electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, reducing reliance on Chinese materials. This shift, exemplified by initiatives like Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) lithium refinery in Texas, aims to enhance the competitiveness of American-made EVs. However, the IRA’s stringent requirements for sourcing materials domestically or from approved countries by 2024 pose significant challenges, complicating efforts by major manufacturers to maintain affordability and quality. Jack Lifton, an expert in the field, highlights the complexity of creating a new EV supply infrastructure and the strategic challenges of overtaking China’s advanced position in the EV sector. The article emphasizes that realizing the IRA’s vision demands innovation, strategic foresight, and time, presenting both obstacles and opportunities for the U.S. automotive industry in its quest for sustainability and energy independence.

Battery factories: Europe’s mechanical engineering companies are lagging behind (February 22, 2024, Source) — The report “Battery Manufacturing 2030: Collaborating at Warp Speed” by Porsche Consulting and the German Engineering Federation (VDMA) highlights the expansion of battery factories, with around 200 set to be constructed worldwide in the next decade, predominantly in Europe. Despite this growth, European mechanical engineering firms are trailing behind their Asian counterparts, particularly in supplying high-tech equipment for these factories, with only 8% of such technology currently coming from Europe. This low market share limits Europe’s influence on technical development in the battery sector. The study suggests that to avoid technological dependency and enhance their market position, European companies must aim for at least a 20% market share, requiring significant growth and collaboration to offer integrated factory solutions competitive with turnkey plants from China. The study emphasizes the potential for growth and the critical need for European firms to innovate and collaborate to secure a substantial stake in the rapidly expanding battery production technology market, estimated at 300 billion euros by 2030.

“This is a very important article, because it illustrates that the EV battery manufacturing industry has become technologically dependent upon Chinese manufacturing technology for efficient and economical production. Is this the beginning of the end for any attempt by the non-Chinese world to catch up? No, we’ve already reached that point, and what other manufacturing industries in the West are circling the drain?” – Jack Lifton, CMI Co-Chair & Co-Founder

China’s CATL says its lithium mine operating normally (February 22, 2024, Source) — Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) has confirmed that its lithium mine in Jiangxi province is operating normally, amidst market speculation of a halt due to falling lithium prices. The Jianxiawo mine, rich in hard rock lepidolite and a subsidiary of CATL, faced rumors of reduced or stopped production due to economic challenges. However, CATL asserts production is ongoing as planned, despite market rumors suggesting otherwise. After the Lunar New Year holiday, it was noted that only one of two production lines resumed operation. The mine, which began phase-one production recently, aims for a 200,000 tons capacity of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) upon completion of all phases. Despite high production costs compared to current market prices, analysts predict significantly lower output this year than initially expected, with potential delays in future expansion due to these costs. The speculation had earlier boosted Australian lithium stocks.

China’s lithium carbonate futures jump on talk of environmental crackdown (February 21, 2024, Source) — On Wednesday, China’s lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant rally, driven by market speculation regarding potential environmental inspections in a key production area. This speculation raised concerns about possible output restrictions, leading to a 6.35% increase in the most-active July contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, reaching 99,600 yuan per metric ton. Speculation centered around Yichun, a major lithium production city in Jiangxi province, facing environmental checks that could limit operations for producers failing to properly manage lithium slag. Despite these rumors, major producers in Jiangxi continued their operations as planned, with some undergoing scheduled maintenance. The price surge, reflecting concerns over supply constraints, followed a rally in Australian lithium stocks prompted by rumors that Chinese battery maker CATL had closed its Jianxiawo mine.

Yellen to Visit Chile in Push to Boost Ties on Critical Minerals  (February 21, 2024, Source) — US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to visit Chile next week as part of an effort to strengthen the United States’ ties with Chile, focusing on the South American nation’s significant role in the green transition through its contribution to renewable energy policies and as a supplier of critical minerals. This visit is a strategic move by the US to diversify its critical minerals supply chain and reduce its dependence on China, which currently leads the market for essential metals necessary for energy transition technologies. Chile, possessing one of the world’s largest lithium reserves, is seeking foreign investment to expand its capacity within the global battery supply chain. The visit, which follows Yellen’s attendance at a G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Sao Paulo, aims to deepen bilateral economic relations, particularly in the context of Chile’s potential to benefit from President Biden’s green stimulus program due to a free-trade agreement with the US, thereby supporting North American electric vehicle production.

Tesla’s price cuts are driving down car values so much that EV makers are sending checks to leasing firms to compensate them (February 21, 2024, Source) —  Tesla’s price reductions have significantly lowered the resale value of used electric vehicles (EVs), prompting automakers to issue compensation to leasing companies like Ayvens to cover these losses. This adjustment comes as the industry is pushed to sell more EVs to avoid fines, with leasing firms seeking protections against further depreciation in the $1.2 trillion second-hand car market. The demand for used EVs fell due to Tesla’s price cuts, affecting companies that play a vital role in the corporate car market. To mitigate risks of depreciation, negotiations for buyback agreements and re-leasing options are underway. Regulatory pressures for lower fleet emissions compound the issue, as unstable used-EV pricing challenges the transition to electric mobility by 2035. Corporate shifts, like SAP SE discontinuing Teslas for employees, underscore the broader impacts of volatile EV pricing on the industry.

Biden’s EV Dreams Are a Nightmare for Tesla and the US Car Industry (February 20, 2024, Source) — The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), initiated by President Joe Biden to foster a US-centric electric vehicle (EV) supply chain and reduce reliance on Chinese components, poses significant challenges for Tesla and other American car manufacturers. Despite Tesla’s initial steps towards compliance, including sourcing batteries from within the US and building a lithium refinery in Texas, the company’s substantial procurement of Chinese lithium-ion batteries underscores the complexity of shifting away from China’s supply network. The IRA mandates stringent sourcing requirements for battery components and raw materials, aiming to cut China’s dominance in the EV sector. However, these measures have compelled carmakers to navigate a difficult transition, risking the affordability and competitiveness of EVs. As Tesla, GM, Ford, and others strive to adapt to these evolving standards and develop alternative supply chains, they face the daunting task of balancing economic, environmental, and strategic objectives in a rapidly changing global market dominated by geopolitical tensions and the strategic distribution of critical minerals.

Goldman, hedge funds step up activity in physical uranium as prices spike (February 20, 2024, Source) — Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Macquarie, along with some hedge funds, are increasingly engaging in the uranium market, driven by a spike in uranium prices to 16-year highs. While many banks remain cautious, these institutions are actively trading physical uranium and, in Goldman’s case, its options. This shift is fueled by utilities’ need for new supplies amid shortages. The interest in uranium is also growing among hedge funds and financial institutions, a notable change after the sector’s stagnation post-Fukushima disaster. Uranium prices have doubled over the past year, reaching $102 a pound, prompted by production cuts from top producers and a renewed interest in nuclear energy as a means to reduce carbon emissions. Goldman Sachs has also introduced options on physical uranium for hedge funds, marking a significant development in the market. This increased activity reflects a broader appeal of uranium to financial investors, with notable investments in physical uranium as well as equities related to the sector.

Gecamines plans overhaul of mining JVs in world’s top cobalt supplier (February 20, 2024, Source) — Gecamines, the state miner of the Democratic Republic of Congo, is seeking to renegotiate terms of its copper and cobalt joint ventures to increase its stakes and gain more control. Aiming to leverage global demand for minerals essential for the green energy transition, Gecamines plans to secure better off-take contracts and ensure local representation on venture boards for improved asset management. The strategy addresses past oversights, focusing on rectifying prolonged indebtedness and insufficient investment by some partners. Recent deals, like the one with China’s CMOC Group, exemplify Gecamines’ efforts towards securing equitable terms, demonstrating a push for enhanced returns, community benefits, and transparency in the world’s top cobalt supplier and a leading copper producer.

Industry Leaders Lifton and Karayannopoulos China’s Influence on Rare Earth Prices and Markets Today (February 19, 2024, Source) — In an insightful interview, Jack Lifton and Constantine Karayannopoulos delve into the complexities of the rare earths market. Karayannopoulos, wary of current market trends, notes a decline in prices for key elements like neodymium and praseodymium and maintains a cautious outlook due to the industry’s cyclical nature. Lifton points out the impact of China’s economic struggles on low rare earth prices, advocating for strategic investments in mining and processing at this juncture. Both experts discuss the discrepancy between market expectations and reality, particularly in the context of China’s economic growth and the slower-than-anticipated expansion of its magnet industry, vital for electric vehicle production. They emphasize the significance of investing in raw materials and processing to navigate and leverage China’s market dominance effectively, offering a comprehensive view on economic trends, geopolitical strategies, and investment opportunities in the rare earths sector.

BHP says Australian support for nickel miners ‘may not be enough’ to save industry (February 19, 2024, Source) —  BHP Group (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) warned that Australian government efforts to support the nickel industry might not suffice amid challenges, as a write-off in its nickel operations led to a nearly 90% drop in first-half net profit. The crisis in Australia’s nickel industry is due to a price collapse from a supply glut in Indonesia. Despite government measures like production tax credits and royalty relief, BHP’s CEO, Mike Henry, suggested these might be inadequate due to structural market changes. BHP, facing a $3.5 billion pre-tax impairment charge on its Nickel West operation, is contemplating suspending its activities there, despite healthy nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector. However, Henry highlighted copper, potash, and iron ore as stronger growth areas for BHP. The company announced a higher-than-expected interim dividend, reflecting robust copper and iron ore performance, and anticipates stability in commodity demand from China and India.

US Bid to Loosen China’s Grip on Key Metals for EVs Is Stalling (February 19, 2024, Source) — The U.S. is striving to diminish its reliance on China for crucial metals like gallium and germanium, vital for electric vehicles and military technology. Efforts have been hampered by the diminished efficacy of the U.S. National Defense Stockpile and budget cuts, revealing vulnerabilities to supply shocks. Despite the Biden administration’s initiatives to diversify metal sources through international deals and domestic projects, China’s control over the global metal supply remains strong. Recent legislative reforms aim to enhance strategic stockpiling and procurement flexibility, but challenges in establishing a coherent strategy and securing stable mineral supplies continue. The situation underscores the complex dynamics of global supply chains and the critical nature of these metals for technological and defense applications.

JPMorgan, State Street quit climate group, BlackRock steps back (February 15, 2024, Source) — JPMorgan Chase and State Street’s investment arms exited the Climate Action 100+ coalition, a global investor group advocating for reduced emissions, withdrawing nearly $14 trillion in assets from climate change initiatives. BlackRock scaled back its participation by shifting its membership to its international arm. These moves follow the coalition’s request for members to intensify actions against companies lagging in emission reductions. Despite political pressure from Republican politicians accusing financial firms of antitrust and fiduciary duty breaches, none cited politics as a reason for their departure. State Street cited conflicts with the coalition’s new priorities, which include engaging policymakers and public emission reduction commitments, as misaligned with its independent approach. BlackRock aims to maintain independence while prioritizing climate goals for its clients.

Investor.News Critical Minerals Media Coverage:

  • February 22, 2024 – Stalling the American EV Industry: The Unintended Consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act’s Attempt to Bypass China for Critical Minerals https://bit.ly/3T8IpYE
  • February 22, 2024 – Revolutionizing Energy Storage with NEO Battery Materials’ Strategic Advances in Silicon Anode Technology https://bit.ly/3T5rO80

Investor.News Critical Minerals Videos:

  • Industry Leaders Lifton and Karayannopoulos China’s Influence on Rare Earth Prices and Markets Today https://bit.ly/3SNSuZk

Critical Minerals IN8.Pro Member News Releases:

  • February 22, 2024 – American Rare Earths Announces A$13.5m Placement to advance Halleck Creek Project https://bit.ly/3wuU1fB
  • February 22, 2024 – First Phosphate Project Receives Letter of Support from Mario Simard, Canadian Parliamentary Deputy for the Riding of Jonquière, Québec https://bit.ly/3SQAP3i
  • February 21, 2024 – Nano One Adds 4 More Lithium Battery Manufacturing Patents in Asia – Boosts Total to 40 https://bit.ly/3I6EmFL
  • February 21, 2024 – Power Nickel Expands on High Grade Cu-Pd-Pt-Au-Ag Zone 5km northeast of its Main Nisk Deposit https://bit.ly/433eJj3
  • February 20, 2024 – American Clean Resources Group Acquires SWIS Community, LLC, an Environmental Water Technology Company https://bit.ly/3T6iSis
  • February 20, 2024 – First Phosphate Provides Update on Plans for a Purified Phosphoric Acid Plant at Port Saguenay, Quebec https://bit.ly/4bINVs4
  • February 20, 2024 – Western Uranium & Vanadium Receives over $4.6M from Warrant Exercises https://bit.ly/3UI3DxH
  • February 20, 2024 – Appia Unveils Significant REE, Cobalt and Scandium Assay Results From 47 RC Drill Holes at the Buriti Target Within Its PCH IAC REE Project, Brazil https://bit.ly/3ST4GIG
  • February 20, 2024 – Fathom Nickel Announces the Closing of Its Second and Final Tranche of Private Placement https://bit.ly/3wjSSr7
  • February 20, 2024 – Canadian GoldCamps to Earn 50% of Murphy Lake for $10M Exploration Spend https://bit.ly/4bBbtz0

To become a Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) member, click here




Russia’s War, Supply Chain Turmoil and What It Means to You

What a week! Last Thursday, Russia invaded Ukraine. Then this week global supply chains went crazy, with skyrocketing price moves and a global-scale sense of worry about where it all leads.

I won’t dwell on war news, meaning stories and imagery from front lines. It’s tragic and painful to witness, and no doubt you follow events.

But definitely, it’s worth discussing the economic impacts of the war. In particular, consider the almost immediate commercial isolation of Russia that’s now taking shape with a wide array of sanctions on Russia’s government, her banks, businesses and people.

This is an entirely new page for the world economy. And what’s happening is not as easy as just saying, “Russia is bad so let’s punish her.” Sad to say, though, that’s where much thinking across the world is focused. Do something. Make it fast. Think about it later.

Another way to say it is that Russia is a major, global-scale source of key energy and industrial resources. These range from products straight from the well like crude oil and natural gas, to refined hydrocarbons like gasoline, diesel and chemicals. Plus, Russia produces a vast array of industrially critical elements, again ranging from ores and concentrates to highly refined and processed alloys.

For example, as Russian sanctions kicked into play over the past few days the price of oil pulled up into a strong climb, with Brent Crude hitting $114 per barrel at one point. This reflects market uncertainty over future access to Russian exports. Meanwhile, one sees stories of tanker-loads of Russian oil going “no bid” because traders are uncertain about the legality of even making an offer. It’ll sort out, more or less. But for now, it’s a serious mess.

Other important commodities with a Russia-trade angle are also rising in price. Wheat futures are soaring to two-decade highs, according to market tracking services. And lumber futures are up sharply as well, reflecting concern over diminishing Russian supply.

Other materials rising in price include aerospace-grade aluminum, now at record levels according to a market follower with whom I spoke earlier. Meanwhile, a significant fraction of the world’s aerospace grade titanium – about 60% by some calculations – comes from Russia.

Or consider spot prices for other widely used, critical industrial elements like copper, nickel and uranium. All have a strong Russia supply angle, and all are at 10-year highs, per trading data.

You get the picture, right? Literally, overnight, anti-Russia sanctions have created uncertainty over future supplies of key energy resources and metals.

Meanwhile, share prices for important Russian producers have collapsed. Consider just two key companies in the Russian investment space, gas producer Gazprom (OTC: OGZPY) and metals producer Norilsk Nickel (OTC: NILSY). Both companies’ share prices have tumbled in recent days, as you can see here:

Is there an investment angle? Well, the possibilities are many and depend on your risk tolerance.

For the truly bold, the collapse of Russian share prices creates a contrarian setup. If you are aggressive, and perhaps a bit crazy, feel free to wade into the selloff and buy shares of Norilsk and Gazprom. Of course, we don’t yet know what will happen as events unfold, so the “buy low” idea could also lead to even more losses, of not a complete wipeout. You’ve been warned.

Or frame it this way: Russia now has a very significant level of what’s called “war risk” in everything that has to do with its investment climate. Perhaps there’s an upside in the not-too-distant future, but for now the entire space is a very dangerous place to be for most investors.

The safer investment idea is to focus on U.S. and Canadian names that work in the resource space that’s affected by Russian sanctions. Of course, there are many names out there ranging from small exploration plays to large and mighty companies.

For example, let’s look at nickel. Large nickel producers include Brazilian play Vale (NYSE: VALE), as well as Swiss-based Glencore (OTC: GLNCY) and Australia’s BHP Group Ltd. (NYSE: BHP). These names have global operations and everything you would want in a major player. If customers need nickel and cannot obtain it from Russia and Norilsk, they can buy it from these other guys.

On the much smaller, exploration side, though, my strongest play is a Canadian junior operating in Montana, called Group Ten Metals Inc. (TSXV: PGE | OTCQB: PGEZF). This company is relatively early stage in its efforts, but with significant progress on the books. The play is focused within the well-regarded Stillwater District, where the company holds a massive land package. Exploration has already revealed extensive mineralization in copper, nickel, platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, silver and even chrome. It’s a superb asset (I’ve visited the site and seen the mineralization), with strong technical and management talent.

It’s also worth noting that Group Ten holds lands directly adjacent to Sibanye-Stillwater, Ltd. (NYSE: SBSW), currently producing minerals in the region. This situation makes it more likely that Group Ten can eventually obtain necessary mining permits and move towards development and production.

To sum up, we can’t do anything about the tragic war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the anti-Russia sanctions are a massive, international phenomenon, again out of our hands. But already these dynamics have set up severe supply chain issues, all based on just a few days of history being made. And more disruptions are, no doubt, in the pipeline as events unfold and politics play out.

Finally, looking ahead the world is not simply on a glide path to a new version of the Cold War. No, Western nations are on the path to a “Commodity War” scenario, firmly embedded inside the looming political, economic and perhaps military confrontations. In this sense, holding real assets – including ores in the ground – is critical to your investment future.

On that note, I rest my case.

That’s all for now… Thank you for reading.

Best wishes…

Byron W. King